MoneyOnComputer

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The demand for the US dollar has been returning to the high levels amid the concerns about the further global economy reducing prospects. Another factor that supported the US dollar was a political component, mentioned in the Fed top management speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The US currency finished the trades in the "red zone" - the dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 96.15. Traders continued to win back the US GDP strong data for the second quarter. The US two-year Treasury bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations, fell to the level of 0.724%. Financial markets are beginning to "lay" the FOMC monetary policy tightening. The US GDP growth high rate indicates that it is unlikely to be the China strong economic slowdown. As the risks can be leveled, the US Federal Reserve can raise interest rates.

As a result, the EUR/USD pair finished the trading day with a decrease, the pair GBP/USD had declined as well and the USD/JPY had increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US, Germany and the UK negative bond yields began to decline which traditionally causes demand for the euro. The leading stock markets showed weakness at the end of the last week which also supports the demand for the euro as a funding currency.

The downward correction stopped near the level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential targets are 1.1150 and 1.1050. If the price grows it will get to 1.1410.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK banks were closed on Monday. The Brent crude oil growth is increasing the UK energy sector revenues which are about 10% of GDP. On the other hand, the UK bond yields are declining relative to the US and Germany counterparts which levels the British assets investments attractiveness and restricts demand for the pound.

There was the support level of 1.5370 false breakthrough. The short level breakthrough on the lower volumes was followed by the price return above the level where a consolidation will be probably formed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5300 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200. In case of a pull back the pair may return to the level 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

According to the Japanese industrial production volume has decreased contrary to our expectations last month. This indicator was 0.6% compared with 1.1% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate to be 0.1% last month.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a growth, the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive area now. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20. Otherwise the price will grow to 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar declined against the yen amid the investors’ reaction to the stock market decline and the rates reduction against the currencies which are used to finance the carry trade. That day the debt market was quiet: the credit spreads remained practically unchanged compared with the last week closure.

The trade volume was relatively low because of the London market closure due to the holiday, but also because of the expectations about the US coming Friday August employment data which can indicate that the Fed would raise interest rates in September.

On Saturday the Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said in his statement that the US inflation would likely be growing in case from the dollar growth pressure decline which may allow the Fed to gradually raise rates.

It revived the idea that the Fed would start raising interest rates in September and helped the dollar growth against a range of currencies, including the pound and the franc.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the world leading stock markets showed weakness that is a positive factor for the single European currency. The carry trade transactions will contribute to the euro demand as a funding currency. The debt market dynamics starts sending the bullish signal for the dollar.

The Forex market analysis is showing that the price continues the weak upward correction. The resistance level of 1.1260 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.1260. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The negative factor is the British currency revaluation against the euro that is its main trading partner. The British pound growth reduces the Old World products competitiveness. The oil prices decline supports the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

The pound exchange rate began a new corrective movement round after an unsuccessful attempt to continue the downward trend. However the corrective movement was short-term. The pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the support level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 1.5200. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese and the US negative bond yields grow that is a bullish factor for the dollar as they increase the investments attractiveness in the US assets. The world leading stock markets are showing their weakness that on the contrary will support demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

Analyzing the yen exchange rate we see that the price is decreasing. The support level of 120.40 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the sellers may go to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro was not able to take advantage of the positive news background which indicates the absence of strong buyers in the market. The euro zone unemployment fell by 0.2% by the end of July, indicating an economic growth that is a positive factor for the currency. The ISM manufacturing sector indicator has showed the lowest value since May 2013 which is a negative signal for the Fed. Despite these positive factors, the London sales ended with the euro decline which indicates the bears’ predominance in the market.

The pair GBP/USD has decreased. The British currency is showing weakness amid the fundamental factors. The debt market is also pessimistic about the British currency: the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to its US and Germany counterparts. Nevertheless the pound strengthened by the end of the trades.

Earlier the pair USD/JPY has decreased. The world leading stock exchanges negative dynamics will contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a positive factor for the dollar. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The stock markets negative dynamics supported the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The US private sector ADP employment data was the highlight of the day. The ADP release was worse than the consensus forecast – the euro received a short-term support. The data came lower than expected 201 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 190 thousand.

Meanwhile the euro/ dollar pair continued its correction. However the pair could not fixate above the broken resistance level of 1.1260 and the trades closed below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Euro zone and the UK bond yields have been increasing for five months in a row which is a negative factor for the UK economic growth. Yesterday the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to their US and Germany counterparts. Markit Economics published the UK construction sector PMI index data.

The pair pound/dollar is trading under the pressure. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300, but the pair closed the trades above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan, Germany and the US width indicator points out to the strong sellers’ presence in corporate securities. The exchange trading funds, investing in Emerging Markets, again noted the strong capital outflow that traditionally occurs in sales periods. On the other hand, the debt market points out to the investments attractiveness in US assets.

The pair dollar/ yen has tested the support level of 119.20 and increased to the resistance level of 120.40. The pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 119.20 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to return some positions which had been lost the day before - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.85. There was the ADP private sector employment level report published. The August data did not meet the market expectations - the actual number of jobs, created in the private sector, amounted to 190 thousand against the forecasted 201 thousand. Nevertheless, traders chose to ignore the publication and continued to buy the US currency. The United States published the jobless claims weekly report. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 12 thousand having increased to 282 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the Germany and the US negative government bond yields. On Thursday investors focused their attention on the ECB decision on the monetary policy and on the Mario Draghi's press conference. The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.05%.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was within the flat. Investors took profits on the short positions after the six days downward movement. On Thursday investors study the August UK service sector business activity index. The index decreased to 55,6.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid demand for the "risky assets". Nevertheless, then the pair decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German bond are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts and the stock markets experienced moderate demand for corporate securities, thereby reducing demand for the euro as a funding currency. The ECB announced its monetary policy meeting results and according to them the rate will remain unchanged at the level of 0.05%.

The pair euro/dollar continues to trade in downward trend. The support level of 1.1150 was broken and the pair is under the pressure for reduction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to their US counterparts that reduces the investments attractiveness in British assets and does not contribute to the UK national currency demand. The UK service sector business activity decreased contrary to the traders’ expectations and amounted to 55.6 compared with 57.4 the previous month.

The pair pound/dollar is under pressure now. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300 and continues the downward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5200 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The leading NASDAQ high-tech index indicates demand for the "risky assets" which is a negative factor for the "safe assets" that traditionally include the Japanese yen.

In addition, the US two year government bond yields increase which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate is also a positive factor for the dollar.

The pair dollar/yen was forming a growth structure. Having tested the resistance level of 120.40 the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar has grown against the Swiss franc amid the global stock markets fragile stabilization.

The pair dollar/franc continues its growth. The pair broke through the resistance level of 0.9650 and tested the level of 0.9750.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency did not continue its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.36. There was published the more important indicator showing the labor market current trends, namely the unemployment trend. It is Non-Farms. It was expected increase to 220,000 but the release showed the decrease to 173,000. Earlier the data was 245,000 from the revised 215,000.

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the ECB negative macroeconomic forecasts. During the day investors actively sold out the European currency amid the too soft Mario Draghi comments. However the trades on Friday closed with the pair’s growth.

The pair GBP/USD declined after the UK PMI service sector weak data: 55.6 vs 57.4 earlier. The forecasted data was 57.6. The UK service sector business activity was lower than the predicted values, but the US data turned out to be much stronger. However, the dollar growth has been restrained because of the claims number weak data.

Only in relation to the Japanese yen, the dollar failed to increase. The pair USD/JPY has also finished the trades in the negative region amid the Japanese and the US government bond yields decline. It looks like the yen returned to its status as the "reserve currency" and now those traders invest their capital into the yen who do not want increased risks.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The debt market dynamics also points to the bearish trend development: the German government bond yields decreased relative to their US and the UK counterparts which reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets.

All investors' attention is focused on the US labor market publication. The unemployment index decreased to 5.1% from 5.3%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came lower than expected 220 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 173thousand.

The pair euro/dollar is consolidating after the sharp decline. However the pair showed the growth and tested the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1050 further on we expect a growth to 1.1260 where the pair rebound downwards.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK/US services sector indicators differential is increasing in favor of the latter, making it vulnerable to the British currency. There were sales in the product market again that will provide support to the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

The pair pound/dollar has completed the minimum reduction target. The support level of 1.5200 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4975.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the moderately positive dynamics in the stock markets and in this regard, investors do not need to direct their capital into the "safe haven" yen. Nom Farms were published. The data showed the decrease to 173K vs earlier 245K. The economist forecasted 220K.

The dollar/yen pair failed to develop the growth wave and is trading the decline. The support level of 119.20 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 118.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.80 will be opened.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The August consumer price index fell by 1.4% in annual terms after a decline by 1.3 % the previous month. Last change was in line with economists' expectations. On the month basis consumer prices fell by 0.2 % in August after the 0.6 % decline in July. The month decline was also expected.

The pair dollar/franc continues to grow. A consolidation was formed at the resistance level of 0.9750.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency did not continue its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.36. There was published the more important indicator showing the labor market current trends, namely the unemployment trend. It is Non-Farms. It was expected increase to 220,000 but the release showed the decrease to 173,000. Earlier the data was 245,000 from the revised 215,000.

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the ECB negative macroeconomic forecasts. During the day investors actively sold out the European currency amid the too soft Mario Draghi comments. However the trades on Friday closed with the pair’s growth.

The pair GBP/USD declined after the UK PMI service sector weak data: 55.6 vs 57.4 earlier. The forecasted data was 57.6. The UK service sector business activity was lower than the predicted values, but the US data turned out to be much stronger. However, the dollar growth has been restrained because of the claims number weak data.

Only in relation to the Japanese yen, the dollar failed to increase. The pair USD/JPY has also finished the trades in the negative region amid the Japanese and the US government bond yields decline. It looks like the yen returned to its status as the "reserve currency" and now those traders invest their capital into the yen who do not want increased risks.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The debt market dynamics also points to the bearish trend development: the German government bond yields decreased relative to their US and the UK counterparts which reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets.

All investors' attention is focused on the US labor market publication. The unemployment index decreased to 5.1% from 5.3%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came lower than expected 220 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 173thousand.

The pair euro/dollar is consolidating after the sharp decline. However the pair showed the growth and tested the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1050 further on we expect a growth to 1.1260 where the pair rebound downwards.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK/US services sector indicators differential is increasing in favor of the latter, making it vulnerable to the British currency. There were sales in the product market again that will provide support to the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

The pair pound/dollar has completed the minimum reduction target. The support level of 1.5200 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4975.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the moderately positive dynamics in the stock markets and in this regard, investors do not need to direct their capital into the "safe haven" yen. Nom Farms were published. The data showed the decrease to 173K vs earlier 245K. The economist forecasted 220K.

The dollar/yen pair failed to develop the growth wave and is trading the decline. The support level of 119.20 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 118.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.80 will be opened.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The August consumer price index fell by 1.4% in annual terms after a decline by 1.3 % the previous month. Last change was in line with economists' expectations. On the month basis consumer prices fell by 0.2 % in August after the 0.6 % decline in July. The month decline was also expected.

The pair dollar/franc continues to grow. A consolidation was formed at the resistance level of 0.9750.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was volatile dynamics at the end of the last week. The main event was the US labor market data publication. This release results are always uneven. On the one hand, the Non-Farm index came out worse than the consensus forecast at the level of 173 thousand. On the other hand, the unemployment rate more rapidly reduced as well as the average earnings increased. The dollar came under pressure in recent weeks as the China slowing growth pace prompted investors to temper the first Fed rate increase expectations. The dollar has grown against the commodity currencies that were contributed partially by the oil prices decline.

At the beginning of the new week the euro has grown against the dollar; the pair EUR/USD has increased. Earlier the euro fell to the two-week low against the dollar after the European Central Bank pointed to the current program QE increase possibility and also lowered its growth and inflation forecast. The yen showed its decrease at the beginning of the trading week, the pair USD/JPY started the week with a growth, the pair GBP/USD has increased as well.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The trades were determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. The US two-year bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations are confidently growing that will support the demand for the dollar. On the contrary, the stock market is showing a negative trend which in turn is a positive factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The price started the weak upward correction. The resistance level o 1.1150 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050, 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

There is the US and the UK credit spreads increase in the bond market which is a positive factor for the US currency. The commodity market also sends a negative signal to the British currency. The Brent crude oil bearish trend will put pressure on the pound, because the raw materials cost is denominated in the US currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the yesterday’s trades.

The price is correcting upwards. The pair broke upwards the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was a holiday in the United States on Monday and the financial markets were closed on the occasion of Labor Day. Last week there was negative dynamics on the world's leading stock exchanges where bearish sentiments prevailed. The moderate demand for the dollar was forecasted amid the US Treasury bond yields increase.

The price has also started the weak correction. The pair broke the level of 119.20 upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 118.40. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 117.80.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The trade volume was low during the Monday’s trades amid USA holiday. They have not published any important macroeconomic statistics. As a result, traders did not hurry to trade. On Tuesday the volatility increased on the market.

The euro showed mixed movements against the US dollar remaining in the narrow range with a growth amid the almost empty European calendar and the Labor Day celebration in the United States. The Germany and the euro zone statistics had a little impact. As it became known, the Germany industrial production rose up by 0.7 % in August, nearly offsetting the previous decline by 0.9 percent in June which was revised from -1.4 %. It has been the fastest growth till this year. However, it was slower than experts expected (one per cent).

The pound has significantly grown against the dollar, updating the Friday maximum. Analysts believe that happened due to the US currency sales resumption amid the weak trades.

The US dollar finished the trades with a growth against the yen having partially recovered amid the European and Japanese stock markets increase due to the risk appetite growth.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro area inflationary pressure has been practically absent from the year beginning and the further oil market sales will have deflationary impact on the economy. In addition, the US and Germany government bond yields are increasing that points out to the investments attractiveness in the US assets.

The price continues the price correction. The price is trading above the level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.1050. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US unemployment rate has fallen by 0.5% since the beginning of this year while the UK unemployment rate has fallen by 0.1%. The Brent crude oil is below the psychological level of $ 50/barrel. Considering the negative fundamental background we expect new sales wave in the short term that will also support the US currency.

Meanwhile the pound exchange rate fixated above the critical line 1.5200. The pair showed a strong growth and broke through the level of 1.5300. the level of 1.5390 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5460 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The stock markets sales increased the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The second quarter Japanese gross domestic product fell to -0.3% which is higher than economists' expectations by -0.4%. The GDP declined by 1.2% on the annualized basis compared to the previous three months in the period from April to June and it was also higher than the forecast by -1.8%.

The price is still correcting. The pair tested the support level of 119.20 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency has slightly strengthened after it lost its positions against its main competitors earlier - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.92. The US labor market mixed data failed to convince investors that the economy was strong enough to hike the interest rates at the September meeting. Some investors also believe that the labor market instability and the China economy uncertainty will force the Fed to wait until the end of the year to tighten the monetary policy.

The pair EUR/USD decreased. Earlier the pair has strengthened amid the euro zone GDP second quarter positive report. Some analytics believe that the GDP increased by 0.4% is better than expected 0.1%.

The GBP/USD pair has strengthened amid the Brent oil growth. The pound has substantially grown against the US currency amid the risk appetite recovery. The GBP/USD was also supported by the stock markets growth. Nevertheless, the pair closed the trades with a decrease.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades in the "green zone". Demand for the risky assets put pressure on the "safe haven" yen.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The demand for the “risky assets" is a negative factor for the euro. In addition, the bond market is sending negative signals for bulls. The US and German 10-year government bond yields are increasing that reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness and do not support the demand for the euro.

The pair’s corrective movement stopped. The pair rebounded downwards and tested the support level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925.



Pound (JPY)

General overview

The UK trade deficit increased more than expected in July that amounted to 11.08 billion pounds from 8.51 billion pounds the previous month. Experts expected that the trade deficit would increase to 9.30 billion pounds. The last month UK manufacturing production volume (m/m) has decreased contrary to expectations, reaching 0.8% compared with 0.2% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate by 0.2% for the last month.

The pound rate stopped not so strong upward movement. After a short-term consolidation at the resistance level of 1.5390 the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the level of 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan and the US government bond yields show the moderate increase which plays into the bulls’ hands. If the risk appetite keeps growing the Japanese yen may show weakness as a funding currency.

We cannot ignore the US two-year Treasury bonds growth which reflects expectations for the Fed interest rates.

The price continues its upward correction. The bears broke through the resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 121.60 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 122.40 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar lost the early earned positions. Meanwhile, traders turn their attention to the Fed monetary policy meeting which will be held on September 16-17. The dollar growth against the major currencies was caused by the expectations, concerning the Bank of China new monetary easing measures. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 6 thousand having fallen to 275 thousand.

During the day the pair EUR/USD was in the flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. However, the pair increased by the end of the trades.

The pair GBP/USD had decreased. The weak economic statistics was published: the industrial production fell in August while the trade deficit has grown. On Thursday traders drew their attention to the Bank of England meeting and its minutes. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

The pair USD/JPY decreased after the powerful growth in the Tokyo stock market. Then the pair showed a flat. The Japan Nikkei index showed the biggest session growth after the China Finance Ministry stated that it intended to implement fresh measures to stimulate the economic growth.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The "risk appetite" growth among investors put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The Germany and the US negative government bond yields are increasing that supported the demand for the dollar. Now the other hand, investors are taking a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Nevertheless, the euro increased by the end of the trades.

The euro is showing that now the movement strengthened. The euro grew and the resistance leve of 1.1260 was broken through upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1325. After breaking 1.1325 the buyers may go to 1.1410.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The main event of the day was the Bank of England monetary policy meeting results. The debt market is also sending a negative signal: the UK and the US negative government bond yields are increasing that reduces the British assets investments’ attractiveness. However, after the decrease the pound strengthened.

The pair showed a strong growth and broke through the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the level of 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets growth put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The United States published the jobless claims release. The data showed the decrease by 6 000. It is impossible to ignore the commodity market sales.

The oil, gold, copper, platinum and other commodities quotations fell very much which is a positive factor for the dollar as the raw materials cost is denominated in US currency.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair USD/CHF has fallen. The UK presented the initial jobless claims report: there was expected 275K while earlier it was expected 282K. The data came out at the forecasted median. Investors are taking a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The American monetary regulator will announce its interest rates decision just in a week.

The pair dollar/franc is again correcting. The support level of 0.9750 was broken through downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency showed weakness against its major counterparts - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.49. The Labor Department published the initial jobless claims report, the numbers fell by 6,000 and reached 275,000 with the seasonal correction. Economists expected 275,000 initial claims.

The pair EUR/USD increased amid the European stock exchanges decrease. The dollar significantly depreciated against the euro which was caused by the US mixed statistics.

The pair GBP/USD strengthened amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US counterparts. The pound markedly rose against the US dollar, having reached the two-week low at the same time that was caused by the Central Bank of England meeting results and the subsequent statements. As expected, during the meeting the BoE MPC members voted to keep the interest rates at the level of 0.5%. However, the week closed with the pair rebound downwards.

The USD/JPY was in a flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. The yen fell slightly despite the Japanese manufacturing sector large enterprises sentiment positive data.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The world leading markets instability influences to the single European currency. The world leading stock indicators do not show a steady upward trend. Last week the European stock indicators decreased more than by 1%. The US indicators showed a growth on the contrary. The high-tech sector was in leaders which traditionally indicates the demand for the “risky assets".

The euro/dollar is growing. The pair rebounded upwards from the support level of 1.1260 and the resistance level of 1.1325 break through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1410, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1530 and then towards to the level of 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency has been ignoring the negative news for two trading days which indicates the strong buyers’ presence. The UK government bond yields increased relative to their US and Germany counterparts which contributes to the capital flow into the UK assets.

The pair pound/dollar continued its upwards consolidation. After the resistance level of 1.5460 testing the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the mark of 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets do not give strong signals on the purchase and sale. In this regard, now it becomes clear whether investors open the carry trade operations or close them. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing in favor of the US dollar. The US producer prices index was published. It was assumed that the negative data would put pressure on the US currency.

The pair dollar/yen continues to stay in the consolidation. The pair is trading above the support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 121.60, 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar is declining against the euro amid the weakening expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase the rate at the September meeting. The US producers’ prices index was expected to decrease in August by 0.1% compared with the previous month and will fall by 0.9% compared to last year August. The expectations concerning the producer prices and consumer confidence decline deepen the doubts that the Fed will raise interest rates in September.

The pair dollar/franc continues to trade in a narrow range. By the end of the week the pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 0.9750. We believe that is a correction.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the German government bonds yields growth relative to their US counterparts. The European currency continued to strengthen in the pair with the US dollar as investors found no support in the American economic fundamental publication. However the pair decreased by the end of the trades.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat. The oil prices decline has not allowed the British currency to take advantage from the US consumer confidence weak data.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in the flat amid the quotations moderate decrease in the world leading stock markets. Nevertheless the trades closed with the pair’s decrease.

This week the US Federal Reserve meeting is in the center of our attention. There are concerns about the possible stock market collapse amid the rates increase. The reason for the rate increase can be the core inflation growth from 1.8% y/y to 1.9% y/y which is published on Wednesday. The Fed officials have repeatedly stated that it is not necessary to wait for the exact target of 2.0% to raise interest rates.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The July Eurozone industrial production moderately positive data may support the European currency in the short term. The data came out better then forecasted 0,3%: in fact it showd 0,6%. Meanwhile, the bond market is sending bearish signals: the Germany and the US bond yields are again increasing which reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness.

The price continued its upward movement. There was a short-term resistance level of 1.1325 breakthrough. Then the pair fell under this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1410 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1530.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Brent crude oil is expected to stabilize in the range of 48.00 -50.50. This factor has a negative impact on the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars. The UK government bond yields show a moderate growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts that supports the British currency.

The pair is trading in a flat. After the resistance level of 1.5460 the price tested the support level of 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5550. After breaking 1.5550 the buyers may go to 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Friday BSI large manufacturing business conditions strong report indicates the manufacturing sector business activity growth which is a positive factor for the Japanese economy and may support the national currency in the short term. In addition, the US and the Japanese government bond yields are declining that reduces the investments’ attractiveness in the US assets.

The price started a weak correction. The pair broke through th support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a calm trading in the foreign exchange market at the beginning of this week. Almost all the major pairs remained within their ranges as traders continue to be nervous anticipating the Fed.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the Brent crude oil decline by 3%. The only notable macroeconomic release was the euro area industrial production report which was significantly higher than expected. The reaction to it was minimal as the market sentiments and the foreign stock exchanges dynamics are playing the single currency driver role.

The GBP/USD has sharply fallen. Earlier it symbolically strengthened amid the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The currency faced with the increased volatility because of “the Central Bank race": today the Bank of England like the Fed is inclined to interest rates increase.

The pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the capital flight from the "risky assets" into the funding currency. This week the Bank of Japan decided not to change the monetary policy course, saying that the economy and inflation can be recovered with the current incentives. By the end of the trades the pair strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There were not great changes on the debt market at the beginning of the week: the Germany and the US government bond yields were in the flat. The Germany business climate data, presented by the Zew Institute, were of particular interest. The index decreased more then the forecasted median: 12,1 vs 18,4. The index was 25,0 in August. Investors received the US retail sales report which is expected to reach the consensus forecast amid the household income growth and the unemployment reduction. However, the growth was 0,2% vs forecasted 0,3%.

The price started the weak downward correction. After a short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1325 the pair tested the support level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1325 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1410 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

There was the UK government bond yields increase in the debt market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which will contribute to the British currency demand. The market attention will be focused on the UK inflation report which is expected to reach 0.0% after the previous 0.1%. the data came out at the forecasted median.

The pound exchange rate cannot continue its upward movement. After the level of 1.5460 testing the pair pound/dollar sharply fell and broke through the support level of 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5390, 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event in the morning. We expect the moderate positive comments by Mr. Kuroda. The BoJ kept the monetary politic unchanged. Yesterday we saw the bearish sentiment prevalence in the world leading exchanges which also contributes to demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price continues its weak downward movement. The pair fell below the support level of 120.40 but by the end of the trades the pair returned at this level.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar rose against most currencies despite the US weak economic reports. Investors took a wait and see attitude ahead of the Federal Reserve System forthcoming meeting results.

The EUR/USD pair decreased amid the August US retail sales positive data. In addition, the Zew report put pressure on the euro to which the German economic confidence index weakened sharply in September having reached the 10-month low. The business sector sentiment index fell to 12.1 points in September compared to 25.0 points in August. However the euro slightly increased by the end of the trades.

The GBP/USD had decreased amid the US two year Treasury bond yields increase. In addition, the UK inflation report was in the center of attention having shown the August consumer price index growth by 0.2 %, still they were unchanged compared with the previous year. The last change coincided with the experts’ forecasts. Nevertheless, the pair pound/dollar sharply grew.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY increased amid the bullish sentiment in the Japanese and the US stock markets.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the US and Germany bond yields moderate growth which is a positive factor for the dollar as it increases investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Traders did not hurry to open new deals ahead of the US inflation release. The CPI release was expected with the positive data. The CPI came out at the level of forecasted median 0,1%.

The price resumed the upward movement after the support level of 1.1260 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1410, the next one is 1.1530.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK Core CPI indicator is showing the inflation growth by 0.42% compared with the previous month which indicates the UK labor market positive trend. The Brent crude oil has decreased by 2.5% since the beginning of the week which will provide support to the US currency as this factor is not obvious in the pair GBP/USD quotations.

The pound exchange rate began its downward movement, but the support level of 1.5390 was short-term. The pair sharply increased and broke through the levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Yesterday the US positive macroeconomic statistics was published. The statistics caused the two year Treasury bond securities growth which reflects the Fed rate expectations. The bond securities growth ahead of the monetary control meeting is a positive factor for the US currency. The profitability increased to the level of 0.8%, having set the fresh four-year high.

The price is correcting against the weak downward movement. The pair grew and the resistance level of 120.40 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has fallen to the three weeks minimum against the most major currencies. The US economic data turned out to be weaker than expected. The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates at the September meeting.

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 11 thousand having fallen to 264 thousand.

The EUR/USD has increased amid the oil quotations growth after the US crude oil stockpiles positive publication. Last week stocks fell slightly by more than 2 million barrels which supported the demand for the “black gold".

The pair GBP/USD had increased by the end of the day. The pound has significantly strengthened against the US dollar, having offset all positions that had been lost the other day. The currency was supported by the UK labor market strong data. As it became known, the UK workers’ average earnings (excluding bonuses) have significantly increased for three months (to July), having registered the highest rates for more than six years.

The pair USD/JPY had grown. The yen has significantly decreased against the US dollar, having reached the minimum at the same time. The news that the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization has revised the world economic growth forecast over the next 2 years put pressure on the yen. However the pair decreased after the Fed’s meeting results publication.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Federal Reserve monetary policy two-day meeting results was the main event of the day. The August Eurozone revised inflation data were published yesterday. The report recorded the index output into the negative territory. This factor is negative for the euro as the deflation threat may again rise rumors about the ECB possible program expansion.

After a short-term consolidation the pair euro/dollar sharply grew and tested the resistance level of 1.1410.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1530, 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The FOMC announced the monetary policy two-day meeting results. The FOMC did not change the rate. Traders expected the retail sales positive data. The forecasts proved to be true in month terms: in fact 0.2% vs. 0.2%. In annual terms the data were in the red zone: 3.7% against the expected 3.8% whereas previously there was 4.1%.

The pound exchange rate resumed its upward trend. The pair grew above the resistance level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders expected the US Federal Reserve to tighten the monetary policy. The Fed published its decision to keep the rate at the level of 0,25%.The US government bond yields have been greatly increasing for the last two trading days which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Yesterday the Nasdaq index demonstrated the weakest growth from the major stock indices which signals about the investors’ exit from the risky assets.

The price resumed its upward movement. However, the dollar sharply fell by the end of the trades. The pair tested the support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 121.60 the buyers may go to 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week all traders’ attention was focused on the FOMC meeting results. Investors wondered whether the Fed would tighten the monetary policy amid the positive macroeconomic releases or postpone the decision, because of the China financial instability. The Fed did not change the monetary policy which triggered the US dollar sales wave. However, by the end of the day the dollar strengthened.

The US dollar has sharply fallen against the euro after the US Federal Reserve left the short-term rates unchanged at the same level of 0-0.25% after many weeks of debate. Nevertheless, the Friday’s trades closed with the pair’s euro/dollar sharp decrease.

The pound was traded mixed against the dollar in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The UK sales were in the center of attention. The National Statistics Office report showed the retail sales growth in August, accelerating at the same time rates as compared to the previous month. The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the decrease after the previous growth.

The pair USD/JPY had decreased. On Friday after the Bank of Japan meeting minutes’ the yen has grown. However, the dollar slightly increased by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US monetary regulator was afraid of the weak exports and expressed its concern about the economic growth possible restriction amid the UK recent events. The FOMC raised its employment estimates, compared with the June forecast. At the same time the current year inflation forecast was lowered as well as the GDP estimates for 2016 and 2017.

The price could not continue the downward movement and has resumed the upward trend. However the resistance level of 1.1410 breakthrough was short-term. The pair returned in the level of 1.1325 area by the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1530.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US Federal Reserve decision to refrain from interest rates raising caused the Treasury bond yields decline. The UK and US government bond yields were expected to fall. The demand for the commodity market also contributes to the dollar quotations decline as the raw material assets cost is denominated in the US currency.

The pound continues the upward movement and completed the first target of 1.5550. The growth to the level of 1.5670 led to the price rebound downwards in the support level of 1.5550 area.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670. the next one is the level of 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Fed's decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged put pressure on the dollar. The Bank of Japan monetary policy last meeting minutes were published. We expected the demand for the world leading stock markets corporate bonds which is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price started its strong corrective movement. After the support level of 119.20 testing the pair rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 119.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 118.40 will be opened.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The SNB left interest rates unchanged at the level of 0.75% in line with the experts' forecasts. The central bank also kept the target range for three-month the Libor rate in the range from -1.25% to -0.25%. The Swiss franc rate was still high despite some decrease. Also it was said that the negative interest rates and the SNB willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market reduced some pressure on the franc.

The pair dollar/franc tried to continue the downward movement. The pair tested the support level of 0.9540 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The previous trading week ended with the US currency growth - the dollar index basket (USDX) has decreased by 0.78%. At the beginning of the new week the dollar continued to strengthen. However, the dollar is at risk of the macroeconomic positions weakening. The August durable goods orders volume is expected to decline by 2.0%, the second quarter GDP final assessment will be published on Friday which is the current 3.7% (2.7% y/y), still it can decrease as the Fed itself reduced the annual GDP forecast from 2.5% to 2.3% in the latest release.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased after the Moody credit agency decision to decrease the France sovereign rating amid the economic growth slowdown. Perhaps the deteriorated Eurozone payments balance played its role that showed reduction from 24.9 billion euros to 22.6 billion in July as some other currencies did not correct by 100% from the Friday's strengthening.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the quotations decrease amid the "black gold" market sales.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trading day in the green zone - despite the stock markets sales, the Japanese currency failed to strengthen its position against the dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and the Germany government bonds yields have stabilized after the Fed's decision not to change the monetary policy. On the contrary, the world leading stock markets finished the last week trades in the "red zone" which is a positive factor for the euro as a funding currency. Investors' attention is directed to the August US secondary market housing sales publication which was expected 5.52M vs. 5.59M. the data came out at the level of 5.31M. On Monday the pair euro/dollar continued its decrease.

The price continued a correctional movement. The supporl levels of 1.1410, 1.325 and 1.1260 were broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target – 1.1150. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.1050 will become the next one.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are increasing in the debt market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the British assets investments’ attractiveness. The cross-rate EUR/GBP decrease is also a positive factor for the British currency against US dollar.

The pound exchange rate started its correction and broke through the support level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets sales point out to the lack of investors' risk appetite. "The capital flows analysis also indicates the interest decline in the "risky assets". The debt market dynamics also confirms this trend: the US and Japan government bond yields are declining that reduces investments’ attractiveness in the US assets.

The dollar started to strengthen and the pair continued its correction upwards and tested the resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The beginning of the week was marked by the US currency growth. The September US Richmond Fed manufacturing index was published, the forecast was 4 against 0, but in fact was -5.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Germany government bond yields decrease regarding to the US and the UK counterparts. The Germany producer price index fell by 0.5% in August (the forecast was 0.3%). The euro decline can be justified by the France Moody's rating change from "Aa1" to "Aa2" because of the weak economic growth and high public debt.

The pair GBP/USD had finished the trades with the quotations decline amid the Rightmove house prices index weak data. According to the Rightmove portal operator real estate brokerage, the UK initial housing prices increased by 0.9% (2.55 thousand pounds) - up to 294.834 thousand pounds in September 2015. The dollar strengthened against the pound and the pair continues its decline.

The pair USD JPY had increased amid the "risky assets" demand in the world. Japanese banks were closed due to the national holidays. There are holidays from Monday to Wednesday in Japan. The yen trend is in line with the stock market growth, still the Bank of Japan investors will unlikely dare to attack the upper limit within the strategic range. However, there was the bearish sentiment predominance in the pair by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European and the North American stock markets positive dynamics plays into the bears’ hands as the demand for the "risky assets" has a negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. The bond market trend is also against the euro bulls: the German 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increase the investments attractiveness into the US assets.

The pair slightly corrected at the beginning of the trades. Then the pair sharply fell and the support level of 1.1150 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1050 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Today we can highlight only the August public sector borrowings release. This indicator growth is a negative factor for the economy as it indicates the tax revenues decline. On the contrary, there was a positive trend in the debt market: the UK government bond yields are growing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets.

The pound exchange continued the downward movement and broke through the support level of 1.5460 and 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5300, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics were not published. The Japan financial markets have been closed for the second consecutive trading day. We can analyze only the US Treasury bond yields in this situation which increased by 6 basis points to the level of 2.21%. The moderately positive sentiment in the world leading stock markets signaled the carry trade transactions growth which is a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency.

There was bearish sentiment predominance. The pair fell below the level of 120.40 and consolidated.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target – 119.20. After fixing below the first target, the level of 118.40 will become the next one.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market sentiment has been returned to the usual state about the Fed rate hike expectations. The Central Bank representatives Lockhart and Bullard bluntly mentioned about the possible rate change in October. D. Yellen in her last statement also said that there were no problems with the tightening program launch in October. The US currency continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) has increased by 0.43%.

the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Germany and the US government bond yields growth. The German automaker stock prices collapse had strong influence on the euro decline having lost 19.1% for the day because of the ongoing scandal over the environmental standards violations for engines and the fine imposed on the company to 18.75 billion dollars. By the end of the day the pair slightly corrected upwards.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the UK industrial orders negative statistics. Investors reacted painfully to the UK public sector borrowings increase to 11.3 billion pounds (vs. 8.7 billion) in August and the industrial orders decrease to -7 from the forecasted 0 in September.

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating after a slight growth. Earlier the pair had decreased amid the investors’ escape from the "risky assets". It is connected with the Asian stock market decrease and the China negative statistics.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German PMI industrial sector index has been showing the moderately positive trend for the last three months amid the ECB ultra-soft policy which has already started to bear its fruits. Meanwhile, the US and the Germany government bond yields have been increasing for three consecutive trading days, increasing the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets.

The price corrected upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The trend is not in favor of the British currency in the credit market: the US and the UK government bond yields are increasing. The China negative macroeconomic statistics put pressure on the commodity assets. In this context, the Brent petroleum quotations decrease has a negative impact on the pound rate.

The British pound sharply decreased and broke through the support level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5100 and 1.4975.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen is consolidating after a slight increase. There was the investors’ escape from the "risky assets" that will support the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The carry trade transactions closure and high-yield cross rate in the stock markets has traditionally supported the demand for the Japanese currency. The Japan financial markets were closed on Wednesday on the bank holidays.

The pair is consolidating below the resistance level of 120.40 that was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 119.20, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number increased to 267 thousand. The forecasted median was 271 thousand vs previous 264 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD had increased by the end of the day amid the EUR/GBP growth as well as the short positions profit-taking. The ECB President Mario Draghi said that "if necessary," the ECB may change the quantitative easing rate. The investors’ reaction was sluggish, but sufficient to close the euro with a plus. Also investors reacted vaguely to the euro area business activity weak indicators. The September manufacturing PMI fell from 53.3 to 52.0 while it was expected 52,0, the service sector PMI fell from 54.4 to 54.0 while it was expected 54.2. The Markit manufacturing PMI came out worse than expected with the preliminary assessment for September: 53.0 vs. 53.3, but, nevertheless, it is the same level as in August.

The pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the UK government bond yields decline relative to the US counterparts. According to the trading day results, the British pound fell. There is only an 18% chance the Fed will raise interest rates in October and 41% in December. After the decrease the pair is consolidating.

The pair USD/JPY had symbolically decreased amid the bearish sentiment in the US stock market which has caused demand for the yen as a funding currency.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The IFO institute published the Germany business climate report. Investors waited it within the consensus-forecast to 108.0. In fact the figure rose up to 108.5 against 108.4. Now the debt market dynamics is against the euro bulls: the German 10-year government bond yields are declining in relation to their US and UK counterparts which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the European assets.

The price continued to correct and now it tested the level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The course of the trades was determined by two key factors: the debt and commodity markets dynamics. Now the US and the UK interest differentials are clearly not in favor of the latter. Investors consider about the quotes the fact that we should not expect the UK economic growth pace in the third quarter. The industrial orders sharp decline clearly points out to that fact.

The pound exchange rate stopped the strong downward movement and broke through the support level of 1.5300 and tested the support level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japanese banks have started its work after the three-day break. Yesterday there was the upward trend in the European and North American stock markets, but the market dynamics as a whole indicates that the short-term price growth is a correctional movement. On the other hand, the commodity markets negative dynamics will support the US currency as the raw materials cost was denominated in dollars.

The pair USD/JPY decreased after a consolation. The pair tested the support level of 119/20 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 119.20 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 118.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The August US durable goods orders were published; the general Durable Goods Orders figure was expected with -2.0% after the July growth by 1.9%,. The data came out at the forecasted median. The Core Durable Goods Orders root index was expected with an increase by 0.1% after 0.4% in July. The data came out less then forecasted median at the level 0,0% The new home sales data - the forecast for August was 515 thousand against 507 thousand the previous month. The data came out at the level 552 thousand.

The pair stopped its weak upward movement and fell below the level of 0.9750. Then the pair slightly grew and tested this level that is a resistance now.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

By the end of the week the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the German government bond yields growth relative to the US and the UK counterparts. The Germany Ifo business sentiment rose up from 108.4 to 108.5 in September against the decline expectations of 107.8, the Italy retail sales rose by 0.4% in July. The ECB LTRO program concessional loans volume amounted to only 15.5 billion euros against the expected 50.3 billion and 73.8 billion euros in the last deployment.

The August US durable goods purchase orders were worse than expected. The basic indicator, excluding the transportation component has not shown any increase (0.0%) against the expected 0.2%, total orders fell by 2.0% as it was expected. Against this background, the euro was able to start its correctional movement upwards.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had symbolically decreased after the US primary market housing sales positive release for August. The US new homes sales jumped from 522K to 552K (+ 5.7%) – such a similar indicator was only in March 2008. Also, initial jobless claims figures continue to please investors: 267K vs. 271K. Pound continues to decrease against the dollar.

The USD/JPY pair had decreased amid the capital escape from the "risky assets". This is due to the fact that the yen has become more attractive for investors.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The stock market carry trade transactions closure is supporting the single European currency amid the ECB ultra-loose monetary policy. On the contrary, the commodity market dynamics indicates the demand for the dollar: oil and industrial metals are in the "red zone".

Investors' attention is directed to the August US GDP final data (the previous value was 3.7% q/q, the forecast was 3.7% q/q). In fact it is 3.9% q/q.

The price resumed its downward movement. After testing the support level of 1.1150 the bears managed to break it. However, it was a short-term breakout and the bulls managed to take north course and return the instrument above this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1050 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0925 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

On the eve the UK 10-year government bond yields declined relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the British assets investments’ attractiveness. As a matter of fact it deprives the pound strong support. The commodity market negative dynamics also plays into the bears hands. The key commodities, such as oil, copper, aluminum, natural gas are showing the downward trend which positively affects the dollar.

The pound exchange rate continues to weaken the downward movement. Bears managed to overcome the support level of 1.5200 and keep the southern direction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5100 first, having overcome the first target the price might go to 1.4975.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The official data showed that the Tokyo CPI fell at the annualized rate by 0.1% in September less than the expected decline by 0.2%. The Tokyo base CPI, excluding prices for fresh food fell to the annualized rate by 0.2% this month in line with expectations.

The 10-year Japanese government bond yields which reflect investors' expectations about the August inflation decreased by 2 symbolic bps.

The price started the upward movement. Having broken the resistance of 120.40 the pair went higher. However, at the end of trading the bears were able to change the movement to the south. The price was fixed above the mark of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to buy with the first target – 121.60. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The number of the net speculative positions from CFTC was published at the end of the week. The previous figure is 3.8, this week is 1.9.

Meanwhile, America published the second quarter GDP final changed indicator: (the previous value was 3.7% q/q, the forecast was 3.7% q/q. In fact it is 3.9% q/q.

The pair dollar/franc resumed its upward movement. However, at the end of the week, the Bears managed to test the support level of 0.9750. But to get the price lower this mark was not possible, thus the price has remained above that level.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

On Friday the US dollar continued its winning streak and ended the week with the quotations steady growth against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day around 96.36. However, the new week began with the dollar decline against other currencies.

According to the data, published at the end of the last week, the 2nd quarter US GDP final assessment was better than expected: 3.9% vs. 3.7%. As a result, the annual growth rate is 2.25%. The final assessment was better than the first two estimates and better than expected. Now investors are waiting for the US new statistics, including the labor market state in order to confirm their rate expectations. The dollar also found some support after the Federal Reserve governor Janet Yellen said the last week that the US central bank kept plans to raise interest rates this year.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the German government bond yields decline relative to the US and the UK counterparts. However, the week began with the fact that the euro has taken a confident northern movement.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the price decline amid the 3rd quarter US GDP positive data. If in the first half of the day the bulls were in trend in the second half the bears took over the initiative.

By the end of the last week, the USD/JPY pair had increased amid the US and Japan government bond yields increase. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with decline on Monday.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The tech sector became the growth leader in the leading European stock markets which indicates the "risk appetite" growth among investors. At such times, we can see the carry trade transactions increase at the expense of funding currencies which include the euro. In addition, the German government bond yields are decreasing relative to the US and the UK counterparts that also reduce investments’ attractiveness into the European assets.

The pair euro/dollar took a northern direction. After testing the support level of 1.1150, bulls sent the price up. However, they failed to break the resistance of 1.1260, and the price was fixed under this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1150 soon. After that mark the pair may go to 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Last week the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee pointed out to the UK financial stability risks increase. The Brent crude oil dynamics also carries risks for the pound. However, before its decline, the pair GBP/USD is able to demonstrate the short-term price growth amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US and Germany counterparts.

The pound/dollar weak southern movement continues. Pound tried to escape upwards, but the bears managed to break through the support level of 1.5200 and fix the price at this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 1.5100. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.4975.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The third quarter US GDP final data strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve would increase interest rates this year and, on the contrary, the Bank of Japan will increase the Bank of Japan QE program. The debt market dynamics also confirms optimism about the dollar: the US and Japan government bond yields are expanding which increases investments’ attractiveness into the US assets.

The pair dollar/yen continues its southern movement. Overcoming support 120.40, the price was fixed below it.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The American currency was under pressure on the first trading day of the week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades around 96.11.

The euro has strengthened against the US dollar amid the mixed US data and a number of the Fed officials’ speeches. The US Commerce Department reported that the household spending had risen again in August, exceeding the experts’ assessment. As a result, the pair EUR/USD had increased when the investors escaped from the "risky assets".

During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat amid the short positions profit taking. However, the bulls pulled up the pair first, and then the bears took over the initiative and as a result, the trades closed with a decrease.

By the end of the day, the pair USD/JPY had fallen amid the US and Japanese government bond yields decrease as well as the world leading stock exchanges sales decline. The Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda repeated once more time that the Central Bank would continue to implement accommodative policy until they reach the inflation target of 2% that affected the trade dynamics. On this background, the price fell down, despite the short-term increase in the middle of trading.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The investors’ "risk appetite" decline shall support the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The German government bond yields are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts. German CPI was expected -0.1% (m/m), but, according to preliminary data, it came out below the forecast 0.2% (m/m) vs. 0.0% (m/m) in the previous month. The index of consumer confidence from the US Conference Board, which everyone expected came out better than expected. Forecast 96.1, in fact turned out to be 103, against 101.3 in the previous month.

North movement for the pair stopped. Bulls attempted to break the level of 1.1260, but the pair pulled back down. However, after the rollback the pair returned to the level of 1.1260. The price was fixed at this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1325 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1325, further then towards 1.1410.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US dollar upward trend is stable and keeps growing. On this week, the New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley pointed out that the current strong macroeconomic releases draw near the time when the interest rates increase is possible. A positive factor for the dollar comes from the commodity market: the commodities sales put a positive impact on the dollar quotations as the raw materials cost is denominated in the US currency.

The pair pound/dollar continues the southern movement. At the beginning of the trading day, the pair tested the 1.5200 resistance, however, overcome this level failed and the price decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 1.5100. When the price consolidates below the first target, it may go to the level 1.4975.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The decline for the "risky assets" may support the yen as a funding currency. The debt market dynamics also points out to the same trend: the US and Japanese government bond yields are declining which increases the Japanese assets investments attractiveness. The FOMC leaders’ positive attitude supports the US dollar.

Trading day started with the pair growth, but it was a short-term phenomenon. For the second half of the day the deals were for sale, and the pair decrease not even tested the 120.40 resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 119.20. After fixing below the first target, the level 118.40 will become the next one.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[url=https://www.fortfs.com/en][/url

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD has strengthened amid the carry trade transactions closure, which contributed to euro demand as a funding currency. The euro area data came out worse than expected. The Germany import prices fell by 1.5% in August against 0.7% in previous month. The Spain CPI decreased by 0.9% this month, with forecast decrease of 0.6%. All day the trades focused on the sale. This contributed to the fact that the price of the European currency has gone down.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the UK government bond yields decrease in relation to the US and Germany counterparts. The number of permits issued for mortgage lending increased by 2 thousand in August reaching 71.03 thousand, despite the fact that the July indicator was 69.01 thousand. The new loans net amount, issued to individuals, amounted to 4.3 billion pounds against the upwardly revised 4.0 billion in July. The September CBI retail sales balance jumped from 24 to 49 (it was forecasted 29). However, the pound was under pressure the whole day and finished it with a decrease.

The world leading stock markets sales supported the demand for the Japanese yen, which caused the pair USD/JPY quotations decrease. The Japanese indicators are quite disappointing: the August industrial production fell by 0.5% against the growth expectations by 1.0%. Now the annual decline is 0.9%. The August retail sales growth was only 0.8% at an annual rate against the expected 1.1% y/y and it amounted 1.6% y/y in July. Against this background, the pair closed the trading with a decrease, despite the fact that in the first half of the day, the price a little bit grown up.

The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release from ADP. The data came higher than expected 194 thousand. The number of new employees amounted to 200 thousand.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The lending increase has been observed in the European banking sector for the last six months. Still the current levels are still low enough for the inflationary pressure increase. The world leading stock exchanges negative sentiment will contribute to the pair EUR/USD gradual decline as the shares sales will support the demand for the euro as a funding currency.

All day trades were on a decrease. The price rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1260 to the support level of 1.1150 and did not even test it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1050 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistical Office has published the second quarter payments. The data was better than expected -16.8 billion with forecast of -22.3 billion. The Germany and the UK government bond yields may support the pound for a short time. The consumer confidence strong data was published in favor of the US currency, which confirms the US economic growth high rate.

The pound/dollar keeps weak downward movement. After the level of 1.5200 test, the pair took a southern direction, having fixed above the level of 1.5100 by the end of trading.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100. The way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We expected the retail sales positive data output. The PMI production sector growth indicates the industrial production increase. However the data came out worse then forecasted 1,0% at the level of 0,8%. The world leading stock exchanges negative dynamics will contribute to demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

Trades started with bulls’ trend. However, in the second part of the trades, the bears took away the price from resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency has strengthened, but against some of its competitors, it weakened. The dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.48. According to the ADP, the US main event is the September number of jobs in the private sector. The index caused optimism in the stock exchanges and its increase amounted 200 thousand against the expected 192 thousand. The US manufacturing sector is showing rather bad results - the Chicago manufacturing sector business activity index decreased from 54.4 to 48.7 in September while it was expected 53.2. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 10 thousand having grown to 277 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased after the September Eurozone CPI negative release. The number of unemployed in Germany increased by two thousand and the euro area overall unemployment rate grew from 10.9% to 11.0%. The September consumer price index preliminary assessment fell by 0.1% y/y vs. 0.0%, the core CPI remained at the previous level of 0.9% y/y. During the day, the pair showed a decrease, with a price slight correction upward by the end of trading.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trading day with the price decrease amid the US employment positive publication. In addition, the British GDP has remained at the level of 0.7% the 2nd quarter, still the annual rate was revised downwards from 2.6% to 2.4%. By the end of trading, the pound managed to slightly increase against the dollar.

The world demand for the "risky assets" has supported the pair USD/JPY. By the end of the day, the instrument decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

During the past month to 52.3 from 52.5 previously fixed, the business activity index fell in the manufacturing sector in Germany. Economists expected the index over the past month would remain unchanged at 52.5. Moreover, the German paper show a decrease in the bond market, the yield to US and British colleagues. Against this background, the attractiveness of investments in the assets of the EU reduced.

On Thursday, the pair at reducing tested support level of 1.1150. However, in the second half of the day the price took a northern direction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.1050. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The “black gold” pressures the pound. Previously, the US Energy Department reported about the crude oil and gasoline increase, which is a negative factor for the Brent quotations. We remind, that oil inventories showed an increase of 3.955 million. barrels with forecast of 0.102 million. The industrial business activity index amounted to 51.5 points in September while everybody expected an increase to 51.3 points; the previous value was revised from 51.5 points to 51.6

The pair is trading in a flat between the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5100. The instrument closed with a decrease by the end of the trading day.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen remained under pressure after the Japanese Tankan mixed corporate sentiment data. The Japan and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a bullish factor for the dollar. Meanwhile, we expected the ISM manufacturing sector positive data: 50.6 against the previous 51.1. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims totaled 277K against the previous 267K, still the market expected 270K.

The pair shows a trade in a flat between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20. by the end of the day the pair slightly decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 119.20 and 118.40



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Switzerland August retail sales fell by 0.3% against the growth forecast by 0.3% after the previous 0.1. Then, the August retail sales rose up by 0.5% m / m. The Switzerland business activity index fell to 49.5 in September from the previous 52.2. The US number of initial jobless claims was expected 270K vs. 267K while it amounted 277K.

The price broke through the resistance level of 0.9750 and the price steadily fixed above this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.9850 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the major pairs were in the flat. Fears for the industrial sector state have been intensified even more in the US. The September manufacturing sector business activity index (ISM Manufacturing PMI) came out worse than the forecast: 50.2 against 50.8 and 51.1 in August. The number of jobless claims increased from 267K to 277K.

By the end of the week the pair EUR/USD had decreased. The euro zone manufacturing sector business activity final assessment remained unchanged at the level of 52.0 in September and the auctions, designed for placing the Spain and France 10-year government bonds have decreased: from 2.15% to 1.84% in Spain, from 1.21% to 0.98% in France.

The pair GBP/USD finished the week with the growth amid the British government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts.

The pair USD/JPY closed the Friday with the growth despite the carry trade transactions closure in the US trading session.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The September US labor market publication was the last week key event. Given the fact that the euro CPI once again is approaching the deflationary area, traders have no other choice but to buy the US currency. The Germany government bond yields decreased in the debt market amid the US and the UK counterparts which is also a negative factor for the euro.

The price was not able to continue the upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement. The Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The southern movement may be continued. Shall the price go below the support 1.1150 it may reach the level 1.1050 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The unemployment decrease and the UK average earnings growth triggered the strong demand for mortgage loans at the end of August. The UK government bond yields are growing relative to their American and German competitors that increases the British assets investments’ attractiveness. The market expected quite positive the US Labor market data. In fact the data was inverse. The figures were worse than our expectations.

The pound continues its weak downward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. Shall the pair break the level of 1.5100 the way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The stock markets instability supported the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The capital movement report in the Tokyo stock market again showed the bond demand increase. The Japan and the US government bond yields are declining that also reduces the US assets investments’ attractiveness. We expected to see the US labor market moderately positive data.

The price is again correcting.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 119.20 and 118.40



Franc (CHF)

General overview

As usual, the CFTC published the franc number of net speculative positions. As economists expected the September number of jobs rose by 203,000 in the US and according to the ADP data. The employment high rate will allow the Fed to raise interest rates this year which will cause the dollar growth.

The pair resumed its upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The first resistance is at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9880.

There is a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The growth is stopped. We believe the pair will fall to 0.9650 first. Having overcome this level the price might go to 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Friday US Labor data came out worse than traders expected. The September Nonfarm payrolls amounted 142 thousand while the August indicator was revised into the negative side. The average hourly earnings remained unchanged at the level of 25.09 dollars an hour. The market reacted with the dollar decrease to the news that the rate hike is postponed. Investors have reduced the October increase expectations by 6% and the probability of the December increase to 28%. Indeed, now the market is expecting the first quarter rate increase next year.

As a result, the pair EUR/USD finished the trades at the mark of 1.1180. At the beginning of the week investors study the August Eurozone retail sales, the forecast was -0.1%.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trades at the mark of 1. 5150. Investors' attention is directed to the September service sector business activity index and its forecast was 6.4 against the August 55.6.

The pair USD/JPY closed the trades at the mark of 120.50. The Markit service sector business activity index was expected with a growth from 5.6 to 55.7 in the September final assessment, the non-manufacturing sector business activity index (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) was expected with decrease from 59.0 to 58.0.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The moderately positive background was formed for the single European currency. The Germany and the US government bond yields are decreasing which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. In addition, we expected the ISM service sector business climate negative release amid the private sector employment weak data which also weakens the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The price will be falling if it remains under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the price is returned to the southern movement. Shall the price go below the support 1.1150 it will decrease to the level 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The credit markets’ trend is in favor of the British currency: the UK and the US negative 10-year government bond yields fell by 8.6 bp at the end of the last week. The oil market bullish sentiments will put pressure on the dollar as the energy cost is denominated in the US currency. The pound continues its downward movement having fallen yesterday by the trades end.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. Shall the pair break the level of 1.5100 the way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Despite the US labor market negative data the Japanese yen was unable to consolidate below the 119 figure - the pair has strong buyers who push the quotations upwards. However, the weak employment figures led to the Treasury short term bond yields significant increase which signals that the Fed will not raise rates until the end of the year.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The direction has been changed. The pair returned to a growth. Our first target is 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to compensate some of the lost positions yesterday. Still the dollar was not able to hold the growing pace and fell. – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.25. The US Markit Economics service sector business activity final assessment had been reduced: 55.1 versus 55.6. The non-manufacturing sector business activity national index (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) showed decline from 59.0 to 56.9.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased. The euro area macro-economic data came out worse than expected. The September euro area business activity evaluation index turned out to 53.7 against 54.0 of the initial assessment and the unchanged forecast. The August euro area retail sales showed the zero growth against the forecast of -0.1%.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the quotations growth. The UK service sector PMI report turned out to be negative. The UK service sector business activity fell from 55.6 to 53.3 in September (the lowest index over the last two years) against the growth forecast to 56.4.

The USD/JPY had increased amid the leading world stock markets growth. Still the price turned down by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

This trading week started with "risk appetite" growth in the "green zone" among the world leading stock indices as well as the high-yield cross-rates. The euro might get be under pressure as a funding currency. In contrast, the Debt Market is signaling about the moderate demand for European assets: the US and the Germany 10-year government bond yields have been declining for two trading days in a row.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

We do not have s clear signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. We shall wait the pair to leave the Cloud to see the direction to trade .

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat right now. The direction is not determined. The EUR/USD may go any way. The first growth target is the level of 1.1325. Shall the pair decrease it might go to 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday the UK 10-year government bond yields grew relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. In addition, the commodity market is in the "green zone": the oil and industrial metals enjoyed steady demand yesterday which is a negative factor for the dollar as the raw materials cost was denominated in the US currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The sell signal is weak as the price entered the Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement is slowed down while the price is in the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price started a correction.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. Shall the pair break the level of 1.5100 the way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened. Meanwhile we see a growth dynamics. If the GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 the growth will be continued. The target is the level 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The carry trade trades grew amid pessimism that the US interest rates will be changed this year. That face reduces the "safe haven" yen investments’ attractiveness. On the other hand, the United States continues to disappoint traders with the negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM service sector index was 56.9% in September, thus having fallen below the annual average.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows horizontal one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing the level of 121.60 will be the first target.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The last trading session macroeconomic statistics played an insignificant role. Perhaps even such political events such as the twelve countries agreement about the Trans-Pacific Partnership, led by the US, had little impact on the exchange rates. In general, the Asian stock markets showed the positive trend. Perhaps the market was once again subjected to speculative pressure amid the overall uncertainty.

The pair EUR/USD finished the trading day with the quotations growth amid the US August trade balance weak data. With forecast -47.40B, in fact trade balance turned out to be -48.33B. The Germany August industrial orders have fallen by 1.8% and the July indicator was revised downwards to -2.2% from -1.4%. The Eurozone retail sector business activity increased from 51.4 to 51.9 in September. The complex of these factors influenced the quotations for the euro/dollar, which showed a decrease during trading day.

The GBP/USD pair had increased amid the Brent oil quotations rapid growth. The UK Halifax house prices index fell in September by 0.9% against the growth forecast by 0.1%. The pair continued its rapid upward movement.

During the day, the pair USD/JPY was trading in the narrow flat amid the "risky assets" moderate demand. The US August trade balance showed deficit of -48.3 billion dollars against -47.6 billion dollars forecast. This has contributed to the weakening of the dollar against the yen, which is shown by trading on the decrease throughout the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the US and the Germany 10-year government bond yields decline in credit market that reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness. The US bond market still cannot come down from the weak employment data. The German 10-year government bond yields are growing in relation to their UK counterparts which has a positive effect on the pair EUR GBP in general and on the single European currency in particular.

During the day bears managed to return the pair below level of 1.1260. The price shows correctional southern movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

We still do not have a clear signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. We shall wait the pair to leave the Cloud to see the direction to trade further.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a flat.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat right now. The first growth target is the level of 1.1260. Shall the pair decrease it might go to 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The debt and commodity markets’ dynamics is now clearly on the "bulls" side. In addition, the data on the volume of production in the manufacturing industry has been released. The data was 0.2% better than expected, accounting for 0.5%. The UK and the US government bond yields have been declining for five consecutive trading days, which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Yesterday the Brent crude oil reached the level of $ 50/barrel, which will put pressure on the dollar.

The pair continues the rapid movement north. Bulls managed to break the resistance level of 1.5300, and if the bears will not take the initiative, the price will continue to rise.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The sell signal is weak as the price entered the Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement is slowed down while the price is in the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price started a correction.

Trading recommendations

The growth dynamics is slowed down. If the GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 the growth will be continued. The target is the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to 1.5200 first.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The main event of the day was the Bank of Japan meeting results publication. Mr. Kuroda said that the Bank of Japan's policy is aimed at the exchange rate rather than price. Also, the chief of a Japanese bank noted sustained recovery of the US economy. At the end of the third quarter the Japanese 10 year government bond yields, which reflects investors' expectations about inflation, has fallen by 11.4 bp and now it has been at its lowest level for the last 5 months. Yesterday the US and the Japan government bond yields showed the minimal changes which does not allow to conclude demand for the US or Japanese assets.

The price of the instrument shows the spiral corrective movement. During the day there was bear trend, which is shown by trades on decrease in the corridor 120.40 and 119.20 levels.

The price started its correctional movement.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal one.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing the level of 121.60 will be the first target. Shall the USD/JPY decrease it will go to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency tried to strengthen against its major competitors – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 95.65. Investors' attention is directed to the US Labor Ministry jobless claims weekly report. The forecast was 274K vs. 277K the previous week. The index showed 263K.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the Germany and the US government bond yields increase. The Germany industrial production negative indicators were published and left the euro no chance for the expected correction continuation. The August German Industrial Production fell by 1.2% against the growth expectations by 0.3%. During the day, the pair showed mixed trading, maintaining the upward movement.

The pair GBP/USD had increased amid the August UK industrial production strong data. The UK macroeconomic indicators were even better than expected and the British pound continued to rise. Industrial production showed growth by 1.0% vs. 0.3%. Investors are studying the Bank of England last meeting minutes. Mr. Carney said that inflation remains below 1% until the spring of 2016. The pound/dollar continues to show north course.

The pair USD/JPY closed the trading day with the quotations decrease amid the demand increase for the "risky assets". The foreign markets power and the Bank of England neutral rhetoric are not sufficient for the USD/JPY growth when the Japanese economic indicators decline. The own negative Japanese data turned out to be stronger. The pair is in flat, against a background of weak southern movement.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German 10-year government bond yields are decreasing relative to their US and the UK counterparts, which reduce the investments’ attractiveness into the European assets. In addition, the demand for higher-yielding stocks and cross-rates puts pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The United States presented a number of initial jobless claims for August. With forecast 274K, it turned out of 263K. The Fed also published its meeting minutes. It says the majority considers that the conditions for the rate increase will be achieved before the end of the year

The price is trying to continue its upward movement. Despite different directions of trading, the pair managed to break the resistance level of 1.1260 and continues to grow.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

The pair left the Cloud. We have a confirmed and strong buy signal The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing now. The first target is the level of 1.1325. The next target is the level of 1.1410.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency can use the demand amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The whole week we see the US and the UK 10-year government bond yields in the debt market which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Investors' attention is directed to the Fed meeting minutes and the US labor market publication.

The pound exchange rate continued its upward movement. In the first half of the day, bears dragged the pair under the level of 1.5300, but later bulls managed to return the price above this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a weak buy signal as the price has just left the Cloud. If it remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 that increases its growth potential. The target is the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Now the credit markets dynamics is on the "bulls’ side": the US and Japan government bond yields are declining which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Demand for the risky assets is increasing. The high-yield currency cross rates were in demand among investors which indicates the carry trade operations increase and will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price is still correcting.

The price continues corrective movement trading in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20 against the background of weak southern movement.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing the level of 121.60 will be the first target. Shall the USD/JPY decrease it will go to 119.20.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Economic Affairs State Secretariat data (SECO) showed that the Switzerland unemployment rate rose in September in line with the economists' expectations. The seasonally corrected unemployment rate rose up to 3.4 % from 3.3 % in August. The uncorrected unemployment rate remained unchanged at the level of 3.2 %. Last year the indicator was 3 % in August. Meanwhile, the US jobless claims report was published. With forecast 274K, it turned out of 263K.

The price broke through the support level of 0.9750 and the price steadily fixed below this mark, already have tested the level of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.9540 first.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.