MoneyOnComputer

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The IFO Institute published the November Germany business climate data. The data came out better then forecasted 108,2 at the level of 109,0. The Markit PMI composite index shows the number of optimists’ growth among the purchasing managers. The US GDP was revised upwards amid the positive macroeconomic indicators. This factor has spurred the US two –year Treasury bonds growth which supported the dollar. However the pair closed the trades with a slight increase.

The Britain inflation parliamentary hearings results were interpreted quite negatively by traders. The medium-term forecast was revised to the negative side amid the oil prices decline, the British currency growth against the main trading partner (euro). In the light of this, the monetary authorities have stated once again that interest rates will not be raised in 2016. the pair pound/dollar sharply fell.

The US third quarter GDP revised data made investors open long positions as the Japanese and the US indicators’ differential has been expanded even further in favor of the latter as Japan has slipped into the technical recession. The current trend is reflected in the debt market which has led to the US Treasury bonds growth for a short-time which is traditionally a strong positive factor for the dollar. We cannot ignore the demand dynamics for the "risky assets". However the dollar’s strengthening was short-term and the pair USD/JPY decreased.



Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR index lost 4.08% at the beginning of the fourth quarter which is a positive factor on the euro zone net exports and will contribute to the production volume growth and the unemployment reduction in the medium term. The Germany and the US government bond yields reduction have supported the euro bulls.

Sellers tried to break through and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.0630. However the pair closed the trades above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1630 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.0730, 1.0800.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The "bearish" trend is gaining momentum and the British pound rushed to the current month minimum values. The UK government bond yields continued to decline on the bond market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduced the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets.

Breaking through the support level of 1.5150, the downward trend has managed to test the nearest target that is the mark of 1.5100. After the level of 1.5150 testing there was a consolidation with the downward trend continuation. The bears fixated the price below the level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5100 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5150.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The "bullish" sentiments have prevailed. The stock markets’ upward trend with the high-yield cross-rates increase indicated the "risk appetite presence among investors" which had a negative impact on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However the yen became a leader again and the pair USD/JPY fell.

The medium-term bullish trend was stopped at the resistance level of 123.80 and turned downwards for a correction. Due to the formed correction sellers break through the mark of 123.20 and tested the support level of 122.40.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

There is a long weekend in the USD amid the Thanksgiving Day celebration. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than forecasted 273 thousand having fallen to 260 thousand.

The euro continued its sluggish recovery against the US dollar. The Germany GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter. The Germany economic expectations, business optimism and the current situation assessment indices were higher than the predicted values. The US GDP report was revised upwards to the mark of 2.1%. However, the pair euro/dollar fell by the end of the day.

The UK calendar was empty and investors had to focus their attention on the US data. The course of trades was determined by the debt and the equity markets dynamics. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech excited the market a little bit as he noted the inflation decrease and the possible soft monetary policy period extension. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased.

The third quarter US GDP got the US and Japan government bond yields to increase. The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar, despite the good overseas statistics. The yen regained its reserve currency status amid the risky assets escape. However, the pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a growth.



Euro (EUR)

General overview

We think that the euro grew only due to the need from time to time to be corrected. The US currency continued to be in demand as the two-year Treasury bond yields are now in the field of multi-year highs. Amid this fact the pair EUR/USD decreased.

The pair EUR/USD consolidated above the support level of 1.0630. The price reached this level amid the low volumes then it formed a consolidation. Then there was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.0550 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0420 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK/US and Germany credit markets spreads have stabilized after the week of contraction. The US traders left the market for a long weekend amid the Thanksgiving national holiday.

There was a strong support level of 1.5100 breakthrough. Sellers broke through but could not fixate below. This level was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5040 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar. There was that upward trend in the stock market. – The "protective" communal sector was the decline leader that indicates the risk appetite increase among investors and put pressure on the yen as a funding currency. As a result the dollar became a leader.

The USD/JPY downward correction stopped at the support level of 122.40. Sellers lowered the price to this level. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction easing. There was price upwards rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 122.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 121.30 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

In economic news, the US durable goods orders positive releases and the jobless claims got the pair EUR/USD to the fresh low for the last seven months. The US important macroeconomic statistics have not been published amid the day off due to the Thanksgiving celebration. Europe published important reports, excluding the Spain GDP for the 3 rd quarter (3,4% y/y and 0,8% q/q) and the euro zone M3 money supply (growth by 5,3%).

The pair GBP/USD has managed to recover after a decline. The Cable was supported after the UK Budget Responsibility Office raised the country GDP forecast for the next year to 2.4%. The report also informs about the budget surplus prospects and the labor market improvements.

The yen was supported by the Bank of Japan minutes which pointed to the risk control concern for the economic growth and the inflation. The most favorable statistics gave quotations additional stimulus to growth. There was a weak volatility in the market amid the holiday in the USA.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US did not publish any important macroeconomic statistics; moreover, the United States had a day off. The American traders left the market for a long weekend to celebrate Thanksgiving in a good mood - the dollar is trading near the multi-year highs.

In general the technical studies remain bearish. There was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough. The price fixated below this level and formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. The approach to the level of 1.0630 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0550, 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK debt market government bond yields have been growing for the last few days in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. As the United States has a day off on Thursday – amid the low liquidity "bulls" opened long positions, based the corrective movement development.

Sellers have not been able to consolidate below the strong support level of 1.5100. The level reverse testing was followed by its breakthrough upwards. The resistance level of 1.5150 was the potential target for a correction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The investors "risk appetite" growth will contribute to the carry trade operations increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency and may encourage "bulls" to long. The US traders’ absence caused the low liquidity. The US celebrated Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. There was weak volatility after the growth.

Sellers lowered the price to the support level of 122.40. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction weakening.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks 122.40 down it will open the way to the support level of 121.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc came against the dollar. The Switzerland industrial orders report amounted to -5.1% vs. -2.4% previously. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank said about the US economic growth decrease in the fourth quarter from 2.3% to + 1.8% for the year. The decrease is connected with the consumer spending rate reduction from 3.1% to 2.2%.

The pair has stabilized. The price fixated above the support level of 1.0190.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0190, the next one is 1.0100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0280, the next one is at 1.0370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0370.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD continued its lateral trend amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics, as well as the low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving Day in the United States. The global equity market shows an upward trend, the Germany high-tech sector was the growth leader. This factor signaled abound the "risky assets" demand which had a negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. According to the dollar index, the quotations were near the psychological level of 100.00.

The third quarter UK GDP came out. The data is at the forecasted level: 0,5% (q/q) and 2,3% (y/y). The third quarter unemployment rate decreased by 0.3% to the level of 5.3%. This is the highest rate of the unemployment decline in 2015. The average wage increased by 3% on an annualized basis in this period which indicates the household spending growth and is a welcome factor for the economic growth. The data output at the level of 0.6% supported the British currency. However by the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD decreased.

Japan has published a bloc of important macroeconomic statistics where the inflation: 0,0% (y/y). The CPI has increased by 0.58% for the first nine months of this year while the average earnings grew by only 0.25%. Thus, the population real incomes have reduced and in that respect, the Bank of Japan governor H. Kuroda told about the weak wage dynamics at the monetary regulator last meeting. The Japanese 10-year government bond yields which reflect the inflation investors' expectations fell by 4 bp in October. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro remained under the downward pressure against the US dollar in anticipation of the upcoming ECB meeting. Investors' expectations regarding the ECB more aggressive the rates easing keep growing ahead of the meeting. Economists predict that the ECB may disappoint the market expectations for the upcoming meeting.

The downward trend may show weakness in the short term. Trades are held below the strong resistance level of 1.0630. While the level is holding back the price growth from the level of 1.0550, the downward trend potential is still preserved.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK GDP 3rd quarter estimate is 0.5% q/q + 2.3% y/y that is completely unchanged. The Sterling did not grow because of the UK and Germany government bond yield reduction.

The upward correction that was formed from the support level of 1.5040, gradually began to turn towards the bearish trend.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5040 line break that will open the way to the level of 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese inflation data at the level of 0.2% came in worse than the consensus forecast year on year which had a downward pressure on the Japanese currency. The "investors’ risk appetite growth" is a threat to the yen as a funding currency.

The dollar bullish sentiment is dominating. Bulls did not have enough strength at the same time to break through the strong level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar and the franc remained mostly at the same place as on Thursday when the US markets were closed to celebrate Thanksgiving Day. The sales remained sluggish until the end of the day as the US markets were closed early on Friday, extending the holiday lull. However by the end of the day the pair slightly increased.

The pair remains stable near the recent highs. The USD/CHF pair consolidated above the strong resistance level of 1.0280. The Swiss franc upward trend is stable, despite the strong divergence on the volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0280, the next one is 1.0190. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target – 1.0370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The 10-year German government bond yields decreased by 5 basis points in November. The average earnings growth contributes to the consumer spending increase which is the inflation welcome factor. The debt market showed mixed dynamics: the German 10-year government bond yields are decreasing relative to their US counterparts, while the Gilts growth supported the EUR/GBP quotations moderate growth. Meanwhile the pair EUR/USD showed a slight decrease.

The US and the UK government bond yields exceeded 40 basis points last Friday. The UK GDP second estimate remained unchanged at the level of 0.5% that has deprived the Cable for the short-term corrective growth continuation. The investment volume has been revised by 0.7% in the positive side, compared with the previous quarter and by 6.6% compared to the same last year period. The British companies are increasing their investments. The commodity market sales had a positive impact on the US dollar value as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars. The pair GBP/USD was decreasing and only by the end of the trades it slightly corrected upwards.

The Chinese stock market panic sent the Asian markets downwards and contributed to the carry trade operations closure which caused demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The oil and industrial metals’ prices declined which supported the US dollar as the commodities value is denominated in dollars. The Japanese and the US government bond yields showed growth in the bond market having formed the first signal on the technical correction completion. The pair USD/JPY increased on the Monday’s trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The November Germany inflation preliminary data has been published. The CPI came out at the level of 0,1% m/m and 0,4% y/y. The "black gold" market negative trend put downward pressure on the CPI leading euro-zone economy. The possible US Federal Reserve December policy tightening serves as a main factor for the dollar bullish sentiment.

Bears have lowered the price below the support level of 1.0630. This level testing ended with the breakthrough failure that fixed the price at the support level of 1.0550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0550 breakthrough we may expect the fall towards 1.0420 further on we expect a growth.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Bears dominated at the market. The debt market shows the negative trend for the British assets. The 10-year government bond yields fell relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor M.Karni’s statements that the UK low interest rates preservation can last for a long time gave the market an additional incentive to buy the dollar against the pound.

The support at the level of 1.5100 was broken through and the pair decreased to the level of 1.5040. There was an attempt to break through this barrier to consolidate below. This breakthrough was short-term and the pair returned to the mark of 1.5040.

The price is finding the support at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5040, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment prevailed at the market. The Japanese October industrial production release surfaced a pleasant surprise amid the PMI index positive dynamics. However it was not enough for the downward movement development and the pair increased.

The price checked once again the correctional corridor support for its strength - the level of 122.40 and then its growth has resumed. The trade was at the marks of 123.20. The current growth is the lateral correction continuation in the corridor of 123.20-122.40.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 123.20 break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The USA/Germany and the Germany/UK government bond yields did not show any changes in the debt market. The stable debt market indicates the single European currency side trend development. Europe and the US have published a large package of economic statistics. Investors received the manufacturing sector business activity index data in the Eurozone (52,8 that is at the forecasted median), the Germany (52,9 against the forecasted 52,6) the UK (52,7 against the forecasted 53,6) and the US (48,6 against the forecasted 50,5). The Germany employment data attracted the traders’ attention: 6,3% in November against the forecasted 6,4%). The pair EUR/USD showed an increase.

The Bank of England governor Carney made his speech. According to Carney the regulator was ready to ease the pressure on the British banks and to reduce the capital requirements volume, bringing an end to the post-crisis reforms years in order to make the banking sector more secure. By te end of the trades the pair GBP/USD showed a growth.

The dollar index basket is near the current year maximum values. Market participants refrained from active trading and have taken a wait and see position. The manufacturing sector ISM index data output is worse than the forecasted medians that restrained "bulls" from the further attack. The pair USD/JPY was trading in a side corridor.


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

If the USA inflation shows some positive signs, the Eurozne one does not show any signs of activity that threatens the European economy with the big economic problems in the long term. We expect the ECB to enlarge the stimulating measures this Thursday which is supposed to push the inflation upwards. In economic news the Germany PMI manufacturing activity index was published which amounted to 52.9.

The pair started a correction. Sellers have broken through the strong support level of 1.0550. Then, the price jumped upwards. The resistance level of 1.0630 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0550, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Markit UK PMI manufacturing sector did not please investors with the strong data: 52.7 vs. 53.6. The British pound sgowed a growth after the UK third quarter strong report. Still the currency has lost 2.4% against the dollar in November, largely due to the Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane comments who said that the UK did not need to raise the rates in the near future.

The pair showed some growth, staying under pressure below the nearest resistance of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5040 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bullish sentiment predominance was noted amid the debt market positive dynamics. The Japanese and the US government bond yields expanded that increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets and thereby supports demand for the dollar. However the growth impulse weakened.

The pair stopped its increase. Having rebounded from the support of 122.40, the pair has managed to grow to 123.20 and to test this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.20 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 123.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

Traders take a wait and see position awaiting for the ECB decision on December 4th. The ECB soft monetary policy is giving its fruits: the unemployment decreased by 0.7% from the beginning of the year, while the real GDP has grown for the first nine months by 1.79%. According to the second indicator, the euro zone is behind the US which has increased by 2.53%. The German 10-year government bond yields rose relative to their US and the UK counterparts which gives a moderate support for the single European currency. However the pair EUR/USD is trading in a flat.

As expected the PMI manufacturing sector came out worse than the consensus forecast amid the British goods competitiveness decline. The pair EUR/GBP has dropped by 5% from 1 October to 30 November. We do not expect high growth rates in the 2015 fourth quarter. The UK government bond yields decrease in relation to their US and Germany donds reduces the British assets investments attractiveness putting pressure on the Cable. The pair GBP/USD sharply fell.

The ISM manufacturing sector release disappointed traders with the weak data. The PMI has fallen below 50% the first time for the last three years which indicates the purchasing managers growing pessimism amid the oil and gas sector stagnation as well as the dollar revaluation. After the ISM release publication the US and Japanese government bond yields fell which signals the presence of bears. The pair dollar/yen grew after a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Eurozone published the employment positive release – the October unemployment rate fell to the level of 10.7%. The lowest unemployment rate was recorded in Germany (4.5%), and the highest rate was registered in Greece (24.6%) and Spain (21.6%). The US ADP number of employees’ data has been published (the previous value of 182K; the forecast of 191K). In fact the data came out at the level of 217K.

The pair EUR/USD recovered from the low of 1.0550, having reached the resistance near 1.0630. Then the pair fell again. The pair is trading in a flat.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0550 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0420 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK PMI construction sector index was published within the consensus forecast. On the one hand, the incomes growth increases the real estate demand. On the other hand, the mortgage interest rates moderate growth, combined with the property prices increase will deter potential buyers (the UK property has grown by 8.4% for the first ten months).

The pair GBP/USD rate rose to 1.5100, but then the pair sharply fell. The support levels of 1.5040 and 1.4970 were broken through. The level of 1.4900 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4830. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4970, the next one is at 1.5040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the support level of 1.4900 break that will open the way for the level of 1.4830. Further on we expect a growth to 1.5100 where the pair may stop.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US new orders indicator also fell below 50%, only 5 out of 13 branches have reported about the orders increase. On the other hand, the employment indicator showed an increase by 3.7 p. and has risen above 50% level which is a positive factor for the Friday's Non-Farm release. The oil and gas sector as well as the auto industry continues to claim about the staff reduction. This report is the first wake-up call for the US economy as a whole and the dollar in particular.

The pair USD/JPY played its growth out at the beginning of the week, having fallen below the level of 123.20. Initially, the pair showed a sharp fall then the quotes have slightly recovered. The trades closed above the level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target – 123.80. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

According to the Fed governor Janet Yellen the too long interest rates growth delay creates certain risks. The FED governor once again noted the labor market positive dynamics which would contribute to the inflation target level completion in the long run.

The NFP was last Friday main event. The report came in better than it was forecasted that may become an additional reason to hike the rate on December 16th. In economic news, the ISM services and manufacturing sector releases came in at the level of 200 thousand.

The ECB decision to increase the stimulating package by 420 billion euro to 1 April 2017 caused the market mixed reaction. Instead of the price reduction the strong growth was observed. Analysts believe that the current dollar sales wave is just a correction as the market has achieved considerable highs. The ECB decision is a negative factor for the euro in the medium term as the QE program increased by 41%.

The pair GBP/USD also showed an impressive growth amid the US currency general weakness. The UK statistical support gave additional support to the pound. The November service sector business activity index rose sharply to 55.9 from 54.9 while analysts had expected a modest increase up to 55.0.
The USD/JPY could not resist the widespread dollar sales wave. Still the pair managed to grow after a sharp decrease earlier.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Besides the monetary policy slight easing the European regulator raised its forecast for the region GDP in the current year to 1.5% from 1.4% while the inflation forecast remained at the level of 0.1%. The 2016 and 2017 inflation forecasts or were revised towards the negative side that deprives the euro opportunities for significant strengthening. According to Mario Draghi the abundance liquidity period will be long.

The support resides at the 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The northern movement will last until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670, the next one is 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US dollar general weakness and the stronger-than-expected British statistics have caused the pound sharp rise. After the industrial and construction sectors production slowdown, investors expected the services sector weakness, still the sector business activity report has shown a slight increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5040. The first resistance stands at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal one and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the resistance level of 1.5150 break that may open the way for the buyers to 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

After the US Federal Reserve D. Yellen performance the two-year Treasury bond yields increased to 1%, having set a new maximum for the last five and a half years. Thus the market believed in the FOMC interest rates hike on December 16.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 123.80 and 124.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

As Janet Yellen stated the Fed was ready to raise the interest rates. She just fears that the interest rates hike delay may complicate the monetary policy tightening in the short term which may lead the economy into recession.

The first support lies at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9960. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The labor market figures signal that the Fed interest rates increase on December 16th is quite possible. 509 thousand of new jobs have been created in the US economy, the average earnings increased by 0.6%. Such data can be regarded as inflationary which allows the FED to increase the discount rate since 2006.

The pair euro/dollar has shown a relative stability after the US last week important release, feeling the support after the ECB meeting results when the regulator limited the deposit rate decrease and prolonged the buying assets program for seven months. The Germany good data supported the euro as well: the industrial orders sharply recovered by 1.8% m/m after 0.7% decrease the previous month.

The Sterling is very much pinned downwards (the price has fallen down by 3.3% for the last month). There is one week before the US Federal Reserve meeting now it is the time for an upward correction. The commodity market instability is supporting the US dollar which also had a negative impact on the pound.

Japan has reported about the average wage size increase by 0.7% in annual terms which exceeded the traders’ expectations. The wage growth is an inflation indicator which has traditionally a positive impact on the national currency. However, investors ignored the positive release - the Japanese yen strong strengthening did not happen that indicates the strong buyers presence. The pair dollar/yen showed a growth by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Monday was not rich in important macroeconomic events. We highlight the October Germany industrial production. The Markit PMI indicator is showing moderately positive trend. Considering the previous month low base we expect the industrial production volume growth. Nevertheless, the data came out less then forecasted 0,7% at the level of 0,2%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields significantly grew relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increased the investment attractiveness into the British assets and supported the pound. In the absence of the UK releases and important events the pair dynamics was mainly driven by technical factors and the dollar general partial recovery.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.5100 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 1.5150 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency showed some attempts to strengthen, but it could not get full support from the Japanese consumer confidence data. The November confidence indicator rose to 42.6 from 41.5 while analysts had expected the more modest improvement to 41.8.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Eurozone GDP third quarter data was published: 0,3% q/q and 1,6 y/y. The September household spending and industrial production reports came out negative. The unemployment rate fell to 0.3% in the period from July to September, but the positive macroeconomic effect will manifest itself with a time lag and the Old World economy will not get high dividends in the third quarter. The pair EUR/USD slightly increased by the end of the trades.

The UK October industrial production data was published. The Markit manufacturing sector business climate pointed to the positive output data. The PMI has reached the highest level for the last 16 months in October amid the industrial output growth. According to the Industrialists British Confederation, we should not count on the industrial production significant growth because of the industrial orders negative balance. The release showed a growth by 0,1% according to the forecasted median. However, the pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The October current account transactions release pleased traders with the strong data. The Japanese and the US differential government bond yields have declined which increased the investments’ attractiveness in the Japanese assets. Traders were cutting "risky assets" positions supporting demand for the yen as a funding currency. The dollar/yen decreased by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency has entered the correction phase for several days. In addition to the European stock market rally, the Germany industrial production weak data pressure the euro quotes. The November index rebounded to + 0.2% m/m, after a decline by 1.1%, but it did not meet market expectations at the level of + 0.7%. At the same time the annual value fell to 0.0% from 0.2%. The Sentix investors’ sentiment report disappointed the euro - the index was 15.7 against the expected 17.0 points.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670, the next one is 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields fell relative to their US and Germany counterparts reducing the British assets investments’ attractiveness. The pair fell not only because of the dollar purchases, but also because of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speech who ultimately did not say any important market comments.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4970, the next one is at 1.4900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.5100.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4970, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4900.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dynamics remains bearish. Japan pleased traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics. Initially, the yen was pressured by the Bank of Japan Kuroda comments who pointed to the QQE program effectiveness. He also promised to take further measures to ensure financial stability. Despite the dollar growth, the price growth was limited.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the resistance level of 123.20 break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro zone GDP has not been revised for any changes - the third quarter growth was 0.3%. The real GDP has amounted to 7357.9 billion euros for the first nine months of this year which is 1.79% higher than in the same period in 2014. The Germany October trade balance report has been published: 20,8B against the forecasted 20,0B. The euro index strengthened by 1.2% in the third quarter. By the end of the trades on Wednesday the pair euro/dollar increased.

The British currency is demonstrating weakness. The pound did not update the December 2nd low (1.4893) which fits into the corrective scenario. The UK government bond yields declined relative to their US and Germany counterparts, reducing the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. The trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with the British currency growth.

Japan updated the third quarter GDP, the indicator was revised from -0.2% to 0.3%. The Japanese yen has increased amid the lack of the US important macroeconomic statistics. The lack of investors' risk appetite played into the “bears" hands. The market is trading in anticipation of the FOMC meeting on December 15-16. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone third quarter GDP final data did not move the euro as the result coincided with the forecasts and with the preliminary estimate which does not look impressive. The region economy grew by 0.3% q/q and 1.6% y/y in the last quarter. The euro received the main support from the purchases as a funding currency amid the risk aversion that put pressure on the stock indices.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0925, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0800.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US ambiguous statistics remained practically unnoticed. Last month the industrial production volume increased by 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y, having exceeded the forecast by 0.0% and 1.2% respectively. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector production declined by 0.4% m/m and 0.1% y/y, having confound expectations of 0.0% and 0.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a posiive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.5150. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese GDP final annual rate was sharply revised upwards to 1.0% against a decline by 0.8% previously and the modest forecast by 0.1% in the third quarter. The yen purchases were caused by the escape from risky assets as well as the Japanese favorable data.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 123.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US published jobless claims report. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than forecasted 269 thousand having increased to 282 thousand. We believe that the EUR/USD pair correctional phase has approached to its end. The United States pleased traders with the retail sales strong data cheering "bears" to short. The US and the Germany government bond yields have grown which increased the investment’ attractiveness in the US assets. Markets expect that the FOMC will raise its key rate by 0.25% on December 16th which strengthened the Fed and the ECB monetary policy divergence that will contribute to the single European currency reduction. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease by the end of the trades yesterday.

The UK government bond yields rose relative to their US and Germany counterparts which supported the demand for the British assets. The Bank of England monetary policy meeting has been held. The UK inflation has been 0.16% for the first ten months of this year which is 0.62% less than in the same period in 2014. The labor market is showing a stable positive dynamics at the same time: the unemployment rate for the first three quarters of this year decreased by 0.4% to the mark of 5.3% while the average earnings growth for the third quarter amounted to 3% in annual terms. The pair pound/dollar slightly decreased.

The Japanese and the US differential government bond yields increased the investment’ attractiveness into the US assets supporting the demand for the dollar. The high-tech sector was the decline leader in the North American and European equity markets and the growth leader was the "protective" communal sector. However after a short-term growth the pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro short-term correction cycle is coming to its logical conclusion. The pair EUR/USD proved to be one of the major beneficiaries of the risky assets sales, connected with the commodities market collapse. The pair was also supported by the Germany trade balance data. The November trade surplus amounted to 20.8 billion euros in the Eurozone largest country against the forecast of 20 billion and the previous value at the level of 19.2 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough the downward movement will be continued. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0730



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair confidently moved north, having slightly corrected from the highs after the oil sharp fall after the recent correction that had previously suported the Sterling growth. Great Briatin has published its October trade balance. The trade balance was expected -11,83V against -9,70V.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trades in a flat between the resistance level of 1.5200 and the support level of 1.5150.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The downward trend is continued amid the "risk assets" positions cutting. The pair USD/JPY fell victim to the yen status as a safe-haven currency. Besides the dollar growth and the Nikkei index the macroeconomic statistics supported the yen. After the GDP recent favorable data Japan published the machinery and equipment orders report which have slowed the November decline to -17.9% y / y from -22.9% previously.

The price is finding the first support at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 122.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 121.30, 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc stopped the downward movement. The Swiss National Bank kept the interest rates unchanged at the mark of 0.75%. The franc showed mixed trading against other majors after the interest rate publication.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 0.9960 further on we expect a fall to 0.9850 and 0.9750.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Germany and the US government bond yields has been growing already a week increasing the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets supporting the US dollar. The US pleased traders with the November retail sales positive data. The employment and average earnings grew to the level of 91.3 in November while this indicator was at the levels of 88.8 and 75.1 respectively in November 2014 and 2013. The Michigan University consumer confidence report confirms the positive trend. In this context the retail sales data output was expected better than the consensus forecast. However, in fact the data came out at the level of 0,2% that is less then the forecasted 0,3%. The pair euro/dollar slightly increased by the end of the trades.

The Bank of England in its Monetary Policy summary pointed out to the low prices negative impact on the inflation expectations. The monetary authorities do not expect the economic growth acceleration. According to Mark Carney, the fourth quarter GDP may show an increase by 0.5%. The UK trade deficit growth cannot be ignored. The October release went out much worse than the market expectations. The negative net exports amounted to 103.8 billion pounds for the first ten months of the year which is 4.46% more than the same period in 2014. By the end of the trades the pound strengthened against the American dollar.

The pair USD/JPY is at the 4-week low. The US Treasury two-year bond yields are kept steadily at the five-year maximum which is a positive factor for the dollar indicating the Fed monetary policy tightening.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair mainly focused on the stock markets dynamics amid the Eurozone empty economic calendar. Not only the technical factors put pressure on the euro, but also the ECB representatives’ soft statements. In particular, Liikanen said that the central bank plands to keep the QE program, Yves Mersch hinted that the regulator was ready to use all available instruments in the framework of incentives.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925 and 1.0800.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British central bank left the rates and the buying assets program size unchanged. Contrary to the forecasts, the votes number to keep the borrowing costs at the current level of 0.5% remained unchanged (8 to 1). In addition, the regulator expressed his concern about the oil price decrease that would restrain the inflation growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5200, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5150 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY practically ignored the US labor market data, published on Thursday where the number of initial jobless claims reached the 5-month high at the level of 282 thousand against the expected 269 thousand. Meanwhile, investors expected the November US retail sales positive release. However the data disappointed traders: 0,2% against the forecasted 0,3%.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair continued to decrease. The dollar was steady against other major currencies due to the US economic reports amid the high expectations about the Fed rates growth the next week. However by the end of the trades the dollar decreased against the majors.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

Still the US macroeconomic data is encouraging. Despite the commodity market sales, the November PPI was better than the consensus forecast. The retail sales report was in line with the traders’ expectations, still the "control group" indicator which is closely correlated with the PCE index came in at 0.2% higher than the consensus forecast. The indicator had risen to 0.8% for the first two months of the fourth quarter which forms a stable foundation for the quarterly GDP strong data.

The euro is in demand as a funding currency before the FED meeting. The October euro zone industrial production release has come out at the level of 0,6% against the forecasted 0,3%. The manufacturing sector PMI came in within the consensus forecast. The negative factor for the European industry was the euro strengthening by 4.2% in the second and third quarter which caused the products competitiveness decrease. The ECB President Draghi supported the bond purchases program on Monday. In addition, he noted that the regulator was ready to use all the policy instruments to achieve the price stability. The pair euro/dollar increased by the end of the day.

The lack of the US and the UK important macroeconomic statistics drew our attention to the debt and commodity markets. The UK and the US government bond yields showed a moderate reduction. The oil and industrial metals ended the trading week in a red zone. The markets may remain volatile till the FED meeting on December 16th. The pair pound/dollar decreased.

The Japan manufacturing sector is now experiencing some difficulties amid the Chinese economic growth slowdown as well as the new orders reduction. It is impossible to ignore the world leading stock exchanges sales. The pair dollar/yen continued the decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro growth is still regarded as a correction, primarily caused by the European stock markets risk aversion. Meanwhile, economic releases keep the pair indifferent. The Germany inflation publication was in line with the forecasts at the level of +0.1% m/m and +0.4% y/y.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0800 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Due to the UK empty economic calendar traders mainly focused on the dollar dynamics. The pound did not react to the IMF sufficient negatively comments. The Fund has recommended the Bank of England to keep the rates at the low levels for a longer period, making it clear that it did not expect the country inflation quick growth. However, the traders' interest in dollar sales helped the pound to ignore the IMF statements. The pair was supported by the US retail sales report did not reach forecasts.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trades in a flat between the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5150.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of China intention to weaken the yuan binding to the dollar pressured the yen. In addition, the Japanese GDP became the recent driver for the yen when the report did not confirm the country technical recession.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 120.35 and 119.35.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Fed raised the key interest rates for the first time since 2006. The GDP and the unemployment long term forecasts were moderately revised towards the positive direction, on the other hand, the inflation rate was moderately revised towards the negative direction. The US dollar revaluation had a negative impact on exporters, so that the third quarter negative trade balance amounted to 133.7 billion dollars which is 6.21% more than in the same period in 2014. The US published the number of jobless claims report for the last week. The data came out at the level of 271 thousand; the forecasted median was 275 thousand.

The IFO Institute published the December Germany business sentiment index which came out at the level of 108.7. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease.

The British currency has ignored the inflation and the employment moderately positive data. The retail sales forecasted medians were higher in November that supported the pound. The October average earnings report showed the growth rate slowdown which is a negative factor for the retail sector. The UK consumer confidence index fell to 1p in November which had been the lowest level for five months. There was a decrease in the pair GBP/USD.

The US and the Japanese government bond yields have increased after the FOMC decision to raise interest rates which increased the investment attractiveness into the US assets and contributed to the dollar demand. The low energy prices have forced the Bank of Japan to revise its inflation forecasts. The Japanese November trade balance report has already been published: 0.0 trillion yen from 0.20 trillion yen. The pair dollar/yen was growing.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

As we expected the published statistics remained without any traders’ attention. The PMI euro zone preliminary estimates pointed out to the regional solid growth. In particular, the Germany manufacturing sector business activity index has risen to 53 while the same regional index rose up to 53.1. The services sector indicators did not meet our expectations, however, it has shown a good result, having remained above the critical level of 50.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The UK labor market secondary data did not add optimism to markets. Last month the number of jobless claims increased by 3.9 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at the level of 2.3% that is in line with the analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, the average wage, taking into account premiums, increased by 2.4% y / y. The ILO statistics just became the "bright spot"- the unemployment rate fell to 5.2% from 5.3%. The UK retail sales volume came out at the level of 1.7 (m/m) and 5.0% (y/y) against the forecast of 0.5% (m/m) and 3.0% (y/y).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4830 and 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The pair USD/JPY has increased. The Japanese secondary report left the pair indifferent. The PMI manufacturing sector Nikkei pointed out to the slight growth slowdown - the indicator amounted to 52.5 against 52.6 in November.

The first support resides at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The first resistance stands at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 123.20, the next one is 123.80.



Franc

General overview

The pair continued its weak upward movement. The dollar is near the two-week high against the basket of major currencies after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time for ten years. The pair has strengthened and broke through the resistance level of 0.9960.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.12.2015

Fundamental analysis


The Germany IFO Institute release pointed out to the wholesale and retail trade business climate reduction. The manufacturing sector business activity grew this week. The upward trend has been continued. The Germany and the US government bond yields grew as well. The ECB and the Fed December decisions does not leave investors with no choice and sent their capital into the dollar and Treasury bonds purchase. The "black gold" market negative expectations were on the "bulls" hand within the US dollar. The US crude oil stocks have once again increased, the US Congress lifted the ban on the crude oil import. However by the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly increased.

The Cable was not able to strengthen its position against the greenback that indicates the strong sellers’ presence. The November US Core CPI index showed a growth by 2% in annual terms which allowed the FOMC a sigh of relief before the interest rates verdict announcement. By the end of the week the pair pound/dollar slightly fell.

The Bank of Japan monetary policy results have been published. The Bank of Japan corrected the quantitative easing program. The central bank will buy government bonds and shares in the Japanese stock market with an average maturity of 7-12 years government bonds before the repayment period was 7-10 years. The assets purchases annual volume remained unchanged with 80 trillion yen. In addition the Bank of Japan corrects the policy in connection to the oil prices trend changes. The trades on the pair USD/JPY closed with a decrease.

Image


Technical analysis


Euro

General overview

The regional industrial production volume has considerably recovered by 0.5% in October. However, the annual rate pointed to the slowdown from 1.8% to 1.1%. The ECB representative Nowotny statements that the ECB can correct the monetary policy unconventional instruments in both directions remained absolutely unnoticed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the support level of 1.0800 and 1.0730.

Image


Pound

General overview

The dollar purchases continue to “put pressure” to the low oil prices which fell downwards to the long-term lows. Prices have not been able to receive tangible support after the UK retail sales strong publication. Last month the index recovered by 1.7% m / m and 5.0% y / y from -0.5% and 4.2% previously.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4830 soon. The next target is the support level of 1.4760.

Image

Yen

General overview

The pair dynamics was due to the dollar growth, the Japanese data did not affect the quotations mood. The trade deficit amounted to 379.7 billion yuan against the expected -446.2 billion. The exports index declined by 3.3% y / y vs. -1.5% and -2.2% previously. Imports fell by 10.2% from the October value of -13.4% while slowdown was expected to -8.3%.

The first support resides at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The first resistance stands at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 122.40. After fixing above the first target, the level 123.20 will become the next one.

Image

Franc

General overview

The dollar index reached the two-week high against the basket of major currencies after the Federal Reserve raised the interest rates, having thereby increased the US assets attractiveness. Experts expected the rates gradual increase, but still faster than it was earlier expected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.

Image

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

Image

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market attention was focused on the US statistics. The third quarter final GDP data was expected not be revised downwards and would remain at the same level as it was noted in the second release. The strong labor market helped the private consumption to increase which is a welcome factor for the US economy. However the data came out at he level of 2% against the forecasted 1,9%. The secondary market home sales data can also be a pleasant surprise. The November mortgage lending volume was 1.26% compared to the previous month that indicates that the real estate sales increase, both primary and secondary markets. However the data came out at the level of 4,47M against the forecasted 5,35%. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades.

The key factors point out to the downtrend continuation. Firstly, the US and the UK government bond yield are expanding which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets and it will contribute to the dollar demand. Secondly, the Brent crude is now trading near the 11-year low which is also a positive factor for the US dollar as the raw materials cost denominated in dollars. The pair GBP/USD decreased by the en of the trades.

The pair USD/JPY declined again, having continued last Friday's decline, although at a slower pace. Initially, all Japanese economic sectors activity index report which grew by 1.0% after decline by 0.2% supported the yen.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro area consumer confidence preliminary report, reflecting the indicator improvement to -5.7 from -5.9, supported the pair. The Bundesbank governor Weidman comments also supported the EUR/USD. The governor hopes the Eurozone economic recovery to accelerate next year. The Germany import prices report has been published (-0.2% m/m vs. -0.3% m/m) and the consumer confidence report showed 9.4 vs. 9.30.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The British currency is quite sensitive to the oil prices further decline, preventing the pair recovery even in conditions of the fading interest in the dollar purchases. Another negative factor was the British Industry Confederation retail trade report where the sales balance amounted to 19 against the expected 21, still it has grown significantly in comparison with the previous value of 7.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trading in a flat at the level of 1.4830 further on we expect a growth to 1.4900.



Yen

General overview

The US secondary market housing sales data can make a pleasant surprise. The November mortgage lending growth was 1.26% compared to the previous month that indicates the real estate sales increase, both primary and secondary markets. However the data came out less then forecasted median: 4,76M against 5,35M.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation between the levels of 120.40 and 121.30 will be continued now. Then we expect the level of 119.20 testing soon.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

Despite the lack of the growth drivers the Euro has strengthened its position. The world leading stock markets have showed a corrective growth. The EUR/USD pair showed a growth amid the inflation and economic growth pessimistic expectations. The United States published a block of important macroeconomic statistics. The employment and the average earnings increase has caused the world largest economy consumer activity growth. Nevertheless the published releases disappointed the market. The durable goods base orders in November came out at the level of -0,1% (m/m) against the forecasted 0,1%(m/m), the new home sales in November came out at the level of 490K against the forecasted 505K. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly decreased.

The UK National Statistics Office published the third quarter payments balance. The pound revaluation against the euro contributed to the trade deficit increase as British goods reduced their competitiveness abroad. At the end of the third quarter the negative net exports amounted to 31.97 billion pounds which is 20.2% more than in the second quarter and is higher by 0.53% than in the same period of 2014. The seasonal factor also indicates the negative balance increase: capital outflows from the United Kingdom. The third quarter the UK GDP came in lower then it was forecasted: 0,4% (q/q) and 2,1% (y/y) against 0,5% (q/q) and 2,3% (y/y). The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a slight decrease.

Japanese banks were closed on the occasion of the national holiday that caused the sluggish trade. The financial sector was the growth leader in the European and the North American stock markets as indicates the investors' risk appetite presence and thus put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The US GDP final data for the third quarter came out slightly better than the consensus forecast at the level of 2% which contributed to the US and Japanese government bond yields. A slight decrease was noted in the pair USD/JPY.



Technical analysis


Euro

General overview

The Germany statistics has been showed that the consumer confidence index rose up to 9.4 against the forecast and the previous value at the level of 9.3. The November import prices report supported the euro. The US secondary housing market sales sharp decline has led to the dollar sales. However the dollar strengthened against the euro by the end of the trades on Wednesday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0730.




Pound

General overview

The UK data pointed out to the net borrowing volume growth to £ 13.5 billion against the forecast of 11.0 billion and the previous value of 6.7 billion. The US GDP report has demonstrated the US currency vulnerability. The US second homes sales index was weak which has supported the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be continued now. Then we suppose the pair will go to 1.4900 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4970.




Yen

General overview

The Japanese economic calendar was empty due to the public holiday. The market focused on the US durable goods basic orders and the new home sales data in November 490K against the forecasted 505K and -0,1% (m/m) against the forecasted 0,1%(m/m) respectively.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

When the price consolidates it may go to the level 120.40. The way to the mark 119.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Euro ignored the negative background amid the increasing demand for the "risk assets" - the world leading stock markets showed growth from 2% to 4%. The US published the third quarter GDP moderately positive macroeconomic data, durable goods orders, personal consumption expenditure and the new buildings sales; however, it did not bring the desired dividends to the dollar. On Thursday the German banks were closed, the US trading session ended few hours earlier. The trades on the pair EUR/USD closed with a growth. There were not any trades on Friday. The whole Western world celebrated Christmas, the most important holiday of the year.

The UK National statistics office revised the UK GDP second estimate for the third quarter from 0.5% to 0.4%. The economic growth rate has been 2.4% for the first nine months, compared to the same period last year. There was the UK clear economic slowdown. The construction and manufacturing sectors were the most vulnerable sectors which decreased by 1.93% and 0.22% respectively in the third quarter of this year. The US third quarter GDP growth also slowed down. Last year the UK was ahead the United States by 0.5% and this year it falls short by 0.1%. The UK government bond yields are growing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness in the British assets. The commodity market prices stabilization is also plays into the "bulls" hands now. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades.

The important macroeconomic releases that could act as a driver for the dollar or the yen have not been published. In general, the United States pleased traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics, but investors have completely ignored the positive news background which indicates the lack of interest in the dollar. The BoJ Governor Kuroda confirmed the Bank commitment to do what it was necessary to overcome the deflation, planning to achieve the 2% inflation target. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis


Euro

General overview

The number of the US initial jobless claims amounted to 267K while 270K was forecasted . The investors’ increased optimism put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The Eurozone has not published any reports. The US favorable economic releases suggested the Fed monetary policy normalization possibility in case of the current trend preservation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross’. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The UK published a series of economic reports that have had an impact on the pound dynamics last week. The current deficit account narrowed to -17.460 billion pounds against the expected £ -21.500 in the third quarter which supported the currency. The negative GDP data have been revised downwards - to 0,4% q/q and 2,1% y/y from 0,5% and 2,3% respectively.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4830. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4970, the next one is at 1.5040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a ‘Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4970 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5040.



Yen

General overview

The yen was deprived with the growth drivers in the absence of interest to the risk-free assets. Interest in the dollar still prevailed amid the strong US data. Only by the end of the trades the situation changed and the pair dollar/yen fell.

The first support resides at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 121.30 and 122.40.



Franc

General overview


After the disappointing economic statistics the dollar fell. The US capital goods orders, the private sector investments indicator showed a decline by 0.4% last month while the US capital goods orders showed a decline by 0.5% in November, the rate is taken into account for the quarterly economic growth calculation.

The first support resides at 0.9850, the next one is 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider long positions with the first target - 0.9960. After fixing above the first target, the level 1.0100 will become the next one.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
29.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs were traded without significant drivers. The pair EUR/USD showed the bullish sentiment on Monday. Last week, investors completely ignored the positive news flow on the US dollar which indicates the strong buyers presence. The important macroeconomic statistics is not expected before the NY and the bulls are trying to disperse the quotes up on less liquid markets. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a growth.

The pound remained under pressure amid a general distancing prospects of the Bank of England rate hike. Traders expected it to happen in the first quarter of next year. However, the weak UK statistics brought some changes in the forecasts. The UK published the secondary housing market report - according to the BBA, the number of approved mortgage loans fell to 44,960 from 45,463 vs. 46,200 in the country. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades.

The initial catalyst for the yen strengthening was the Kuroda's comments where he expressed confidence that the economy was on track to achieve the 2% target level of consumer prices. However, he made it clear that the regulator would continue to stay within the QQE framework. The pair dollar/yen showed a slight decrease amid this background.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The US labor market strong data did not make much of an impression on prices. Last week, the initial claims number dropped to 267 thousand. from 272 thousand earlier. Traders expected 270 thousand. There were no important releases from the EU. The overseas economic releases show positive figures, the Fed may accelerate the monetary policy normalization if the current trend is continued.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price action is above the Cloud and is heading upwards. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. Ichimoku Cloud is neutral now.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair could escalate up to 1.1050. Alternatively, we expect the EUR/USD to fall to 1.0925.




Pound

General overview

There was a Boxing Day holiday on Monday in the UK. The Sterling recovered after the third quarter UK payment balance optimistic report. Last week the UK government bonds grew in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the Cable investment attractiveness and thereby support the demand for the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price continued to advance south. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Technically, the main trend is down. The upcoming news won’t be able to drive the Forex pair lower. We see the level of 1.4970 as the first growth target if the pair keeps its north direction. Shall the pair return to a fall we shall see it at the level of 1.4830 soon.




Yen

General overview

Japan has published a series of statistical reports for November: the preliminary industrial production data came in at -1.0% m/m vs. 1.4% m/m (the forecast was 0.6%); the retail sales volume came in at -1.0% y/y vs. 1.8% y/y (the forecast was 0.6%).

The first support resides at 119.20, the next is at 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and we expect its further decline. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the decrease will be continued now. The targets are the levels 119.20 and 118.40. We do not exclude the growth to 120.40 and 121.30.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

We highlight the Conference Board consumer confidence report. The December Michigan University indicator showed growth against the strong labor market background, allowing to calculate the Conference Board positive data output. The data came out at the level of 96,5p. that is better then forecasted 93,0p.

The stock exchange showed some pessimism: the banking sector became the decline leaders. This factor supported the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The trade is still sluggish due to the low-liquid market. However the pair EUR/USD slightly fell.

London bank reopened its doors for customers. Given the low liquidity and lack of important macroeconomic statistics, investors pay attention to the commodity market dynamics, especially in the "black gold". The Brent determines the Cable course of trading. The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The Japanese macroeconomic statistics once again upset the traders. The statistics showed a personal consumption decrease in November which is a negative factor for the economic growth. The industrial production decreased by 0.3%. However, the Old World and North America leading stock markets pessimism prevails that is a positive environment for safe assets which traditionally includes the Japanese yen. The pair USD/JPY is trading in a flat.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB Mersch regulator's statements regarding the further monetary policy easing readiness, alongside with the deposit rates decrease did not cause noticeable reaction on the pair, as a matter of fact, the Speaker did not say anything new. In addition, the single currency was kept afloat by the flight from risky assets.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the level of 1.1050 breakthrough the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1150. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0800.




Pound

General overview

The Cable finishes the year near the 7-month low. The Bank of England uncertain position regarding the interest rates hike is a downward movement driver for the Sterling. The Bank is still the "second in line" after the Fed, the time-limit when the Regulator may change the rates is moved significantly, given the weak inflationary pressures, sluggish wage growth, conflicting data on business activity and politicians' cautious statements.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price continued to advance south. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.4830 further on we expect a consolidation.




Yen

General overview

Many investors are already beginning to celebrate the New Year. Moreover, traditional holidays volatility is falling and we do not expect any important statistics till the end of the week.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and we expect its further decline. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be continued now at the level of 120.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a mixed trend at the Forex market last trading week of the year, some pairs even showed an increased volatility in their trading. The dollar resumed its growth against its competitors, having received support from the positive sentiment in the stock markets as well as strong data from the US. In general, traders’ activity continued to fall on the eve of the New Year holidays.

The dollar purchases alongside with the stock markets positive sentiment and favorable statistics from the United States became the driver for the EUR/USD downward dynamics resumption. In particular, prices, contrary to the predictions, kept the growth rate of 5.5% and the consumer confidence in December jumped to 96.5 versus the expected 93.8 and the previous value of the index at 90.4. The recent figures again indicated that the US economy is in great shape and is ready to tighten monetary policy further even more rapid pace.

As for the pair GBPUSD, the pound decreased amid the Cable fundamental weakness due to the recent sharp deterioration of macroeconomic data (inflation slowdown, the GDP decline), which has taken away from the markets hope for a rate hike by the Bank of England next year. The pair pound/dollar slightly corrected upwards by the end of the trades.

The USDJPY showed the most restrained dynamics. The pair’s movement is limited by the resistance around 121.30 and the support at 120.40 area. However, even strong statistics from the United States was unable to revive the pair.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The German government bonds rose relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increases the investments attractiveness in European assets and thereby supports the demand for euro. Nevertheless, the euro slightly fell.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

When the price consolidates below the level of 1.0925 it may go to the level 1.0800.




Pound

General overview

We see a mixed background of the British currency. The 10-year UK government bonds decline relative to their US and Germany reduces the British assets attractiveness adding a downward pressure on the pound. The Cable situation is worst among the major currencies on the current US dollar corrective phase. The pound increased only by the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will trade in a flat between the levels of 1.4760-1.4830.



Yen

General overview

The world's leading stock indices show a rising trend alongside with the high-yield cross-rates in the currency market. Such dynamics indicates growth "risk appetite" among investors which is traditionally a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.




Franc

General overview

The franc strengthened against its main rivals. According to forecasts the Switzerland GDP may increase by 1% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. The National Bank of Switzerland policy also has a huge impact the franc dynamics. The ongoing EUR/CHF intervention limits the franc growth as well.

The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The last trading day of 2015 was marked by the dollar strengthening against its major rivals. Most of the traders left the market earlier to celebrate the Catholic Christmas and the New Year. The weak US data did not stop the EUR/USD from growth. The weekly unemployment benefits rose by 20K to the mark 287 000. In economic news, the Chicago Fed business activity index came in at 42.9, not much short of the forecast of 49.8.

In the middle of last week, the ECB reported about the November private sector lending growth, the rate was 1.4% in annual terms which is the highest level in the past year. Monday trading was revived due to the planned statistics. The euro area countries published the manufacturing business activity. Germany surfaced the inflation report: 0,3% y/y and -0,1% m/m against forecasted 0,6% y/y и 0,2% m/m. The Germany PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 53,2 against forecasted 53,0. The pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

The UK published money supply report 0,4% m/m against the forecasted 0,5% m/m. The Britain PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 51,9 against forecasted 52,7. The 10-year UK government bonds yield is growing relative to their counterparts from the US and Germany, which supports the demand for the pound. However, the trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a decrease.

The US and Japanese government bond yield differential exceeded the level of 200 pp which increases the US assets investment attractiveness. The pair USD/JPY showed a growth by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro lost 10% over the past year while it declined by 12% in 2014. In December, the pair returned a part of the losses due to the November two key Central Banks careful actions - the ECB refrained from a large-scale stimulus, the Fed raised its rate by 0.25%. The fact that the US regulator began the monetary policy normalization while the rest of the world central banks including the ECB continue their soft policy. This factor is likely to continue to provide support to the greenback in the coming year.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.



Pound

General overview

The Cable is still under strong "bearish" pressure amid the UK economy weak forecasts and the negative prospects for the Bank of England interest rates growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4830.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4760 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4830.



Yen

General overview

Traders bought the yen as a safe haven when the Chinese market fell more than 7%, while Japanese's stock index lost 3%. The Japanese industrial sector business activity index showed growth to 52.6 in December from 52.5 in November. The US published the manufacturing sector PMI from ISM report at the level of 48,2 against the forecasted median at 49,0.

The first support resides at 119.20, the next is at 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.30.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The China stock market drama had a direct impact on the currencies behavior. The China manufacturing sector business activity surfaced the PMI fall to 48.2 vs. expected of 48.9. Ten consecutive month of falling triggered a new wave of concern about the Chinese economy state and its potential impact on global GDP. This fact, coupled with the Middle East conflict escalation where Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with Iran, provoked a strong wave of risk aversion.

The December Germany preliminary inflation data showed weak results: 0,2% against the forecasted median 0,3%. The USA statistics is disappointing as well. The manufacturing sector ISM has been below 50% for two consecutive months, indicating a business activity slowdown. The index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 in December. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease.

The UK November number of mortgage approvals in 2015 amounted to 70.4 thousand which is 0.77% more than in the previous month and 18.81% more than in November 2014. That is the mortgage market which is the main growth driver in the real estate sector and in view of the above-described positive momentum we expected the construction sector PMI within the consensus forecast which may provide some support for the Cable. The data came out at the level of 57,8 against the forecasted 56,0. However the pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

The world stock indices collapse strengthened safe-haven assets. The main beneficiary was the yen. Still the followed USD buying changed the alignment of forces in the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, after a slight correction the pair fell again.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In addition to a dollar general direction movement change the Germany inflation report has brought a bit of negative when the consumer prices growth index slowed to + 0.2% y/y from 0.3% while traders expected it to accelerate to 0.4%. The euro area inflation report was the key event of Tuesday that came out worse then forecasted median. In addition, Germany has surfaced labor market indicators: -14K and -6K.

The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0630, 1.0550.



Pound

General overview

Neither the British statistics bright data nor the weak US figures did not help the pound which is showing the downward trend still expecting the Bank of England rate hike in the coming year. We expect the Bank of England credit conditions report this week.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4560 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The yen rally against the dollar and the euro was stopped on Tuesday when the Chinese stock market started a recovery though traders are still not sure that the Chinese market reached its bottom. The yen still may strengthen expecting the BoJ monetary policy easing in the short term. The United States weak data may support the yen due to risk aversion. The United States published the New York ISM at the level of 716,6.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 119.20, 120.40.


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

Investors keep buying the dollar. Trading volumes are higher than in the same days last year. The euro area employment data pleased traders. The Spain unemployed number decreased by 55.8 thousand. vs. expected of 52.6 thousand. The same index is 55.8 thousand in Germany. The forecast was 52.6 thousand. The pair euro/dollar showed a slight growth.

The UK debt market is now set against the bulls: the 10-year UK government bonds yield is reduced relative to their US and Germany counterparts reducing the Cable investments attractiveness. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased.

Now investors are more alarmed of the Chinese economy state than six months ago, having started buying the dollar. China conducted a currency intervention at 19.9 billion dollars to support the yuan. The operation was a success - the dollar fell from 6.54 yuan to 6.52. As about the pair dollar/yen – it showed a slight decrease.

The commodity currencies again suffered from the Chinese economy weak data releases. Australian and New Zealand dollars fell most of all.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

We noted the bearish sentiment prevalence. The weak November euro area inflation data contributed to the US and Germany government bonds growth reducing the investments attractiveness in European assets putting pressure on the single European currency. The trades were determined by the services ISM (55,3 against the forecasted median 56,0) and the US Energy Department releases (-5,085М against the forecasted median 0,439М).

The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.




Pound

General overview

The published positive construction sector PMI was unable to provide strong support for the pound. That is a signal of the strong sellers presence. The Markit published the third report - this time we got the service sector data. This indicator has been showing the moderate growth for the last two months, however, if we want to see a strong demand for the pound the indicator final value should be higher than 56.6 n. The release came in at the level of 55,5 that put pressure on the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The lack of "risk appetite" among investors continues to contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The high-yield cross-rates have been showing weakness from the beginning of the trading week. We believe traders are not interesting in new carry trade orders.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the flat trades between the levels of 118.40 and 119.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a quite volatile trading day yesterday. The dollar showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals. Traders still do not prefer to risk as they do have concerns to worry about. They are global economy slowdown, low oil price and the Chinese economy.

Soft Fed meeting minutes weakened the US currency. The regulator expressed his concerns about the inflation, the strong dollar which triggered the greenback sales. The US published the initial jobless clams (277 000 against the forecasted 275 000).

The euro got some support after the risky assets sales. However, the US strong labor market data gave new strength to the dollar. According to ADP, the December private sector employment level increased by 257 thousand. These figures are much higher than the forecast and the previous value of 192 thousand. However after the USA new statistics the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

A series of weak economic data postpones the Bank of England rate hike which exacerbates the divergence rate of the BoE and the Fed. That is another long-term negative factor for the Sterling. The trades closed with the pair GBP/USD decrease.

The USD/JPY accelerated its decline after the Fed meeting minutes’ publication. The price moved further down. The risk factor always plays into the Japanese yen hands.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Traders received the Germany retail sales and factory orders data. The euro zone is to publish the labor market (the unemployment rate is 10,5% against the forecasted 10,7%), the consumer confidence (at the forecasted median -0,6), the retail sales (-0,3% against the forecasted median 0,2%), the economic sentiment (-2,0 against the forecasted median -3,0) reports.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The strong dollar does not leave the choice to the pound which has to develop the downward momentum. The EUR/GBP dynamics played the negative role for the Cable having grown within the day. The UK statistics continues to disappoint traders. The UK surfaced the house prices minor report that came in better then forecasted median 9,5%(y/y) and 1,7%(m/m).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4630 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4700.



Yen

General overview

We believe that the raw materials low prices as well as the Chinese economy state shall keep the interest to the yen. Today the market will pay its attention to the USA Non-Farms.

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the flat trades at the level of 117.80.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss franc rose against the dollar on the wave of the total US currency sales after the FOMC protocols publication. Meanwhile, the Fed's representative Fisher predicts that the rate will be increased by 4 times in 2016. He noted that the Fed currently has no information how many times the rate would be changed in 2016. However, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank raised its GDP growth forecast in Q4 on Wednesday.

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The indicator shows a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Chinese market collapse for more than 7%, the Chinese stock exchanges trading suspension, cheap oil – all these factors supported the euro and the yen. The dollar experienced difficulties with a growth amid the global markets negative sentiment, the Fed soft minutes as well as the weak labor market data. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came higher than expected 200 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 295 thousand.

The struggle between the major competitors, the euro and the dollar, is continued. We believe that the euro current growth looks more like a temporary correction while the dollar remains on a horse. The pair received almost no support from the macroeconomic data which had the mixed background. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar increased.

The pound was the main outsider among the main currencies. The Cable has recently been quite sensitive to the oil prices drop which has fallen to 11-year lows. The Sterling slightly corrected after the weak USA data, in general, the pair remains under strong pressure. The UK published the trade balance: -10,64B against the forecasted -10,50B. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

At the same time Japan did not publish important reports. The dollar dynamics is the main driver for the yen. The pair USD/JPY sharply fell by the end of the trading day.





Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The consumer sentiment improvement in most sectors of the regional economy has not been transformed into the consumer spending increase yet that is seen from the retail sales reports. The Germany published import (1,6% against the forecasted 1,0%), export (0,4% against the forecasted 0,7%), payment balance (19,7B against the forecasted 20,0B) and industrial production reports (-0,3% against the forecasted 0,5%).

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1050 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

Besides to the divergence between the Bank of England and the Fed monetary policies the Sterling is under pressure amid some fears that the UK may exit the EU. The referendum is supposed to take place in the middle of 2016. While traders are speculating about the possible referendum consequences the pound remains in a state of free fall. In addition, the oil price decrease keeps pressuring the Cable.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4480 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4400 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The NFP report was last Friday main event. After a growth for 2012 thousand in November, the December NFP figure was expected to reach 200 thousand. However the relese came in at the level 292 thousand. The labor market state is one of the key benchmarks for the Fed in determining the monetary policy course.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 117.00 and 116.20 soon.




Franc

General overview

The dollar fell against the franc. Earlier the pair dollar/franc strengthened amid growing interest in dollar buying and the European shares recovery. The Chinese stock markets stabilized, European markets are recovering that reduces the demand for the safe assets, including the franc. The Switzerland unemployment rate rose to 3,7% from 3,4%, exceeding the forecast of 3,6%. The consumer prices fell in December by 1,3% y/y, after falling 1,4%.

The first support resides at 0.9850, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price is in the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar again showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals, having shown weakening against the yen the sixth day in a row. In general, there was an attempt to restore the US currency positions amid the global markets improved sentiment. Last week the Chinese government decided not to suspend trading anymore that helped stock indexes to recover. This fact played into the dollar hands against the euro, still the pair loss appeared to be symbolic. At the same time unexpectedly strong USA employment report has not given to a greenback a substantial support.

The low inflation expectations, combined with the Chinese problems can make FOMC refrain from monetary policy tightening at the meeting on 27th of January, which will deprive the US dollar strong support. Yesterday the trading was defined by risk appetite amid lack of macroeconomic statistics. After a slight correction growth the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The British pound finished last week in the "red zone", still the smooth sterling devaluation is a positive factor for the United Kingdom economy. The UK trade balance release again points to the “strong pound” negative effect: the deficit amounted to 10.64 billion pounds in November which is by 1.08% more than in the same period in 2014. The pair pound/dollar decreased on Monday.

The major stock indices in Asia, Europe and North America lost more than 6% at the end of last week. The trend is in favor of the Japanese yen in the credit market: the yield differential of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds is decreasing that may attract investment to the US assets. The pair dollar/yen showed a decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Germany data pressured the euro. In particular, the Germany industrial production fell by 0.3% in November despite the forecast of 0.5% y / y, while the trade surplus narrowed to 19.7 billion euros from the previous 20.5 billion. The price fell back down after the US labor market publication. However, there was just a short-term dollar strengthening despite the unexpectedly high index results.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.0925, 1.1050. If the price falls it will get to 1.0800 and 1.0730.



Pound

General overview

The pair GBP/USD continues to move towards the south. In addition to the fundamental factors (the Bank of England and the United States monetary policy difference), and the potential United Kingdom exit from the EU the UK statistics disappointed the market –merchandise trade deficit narrowed in November and fell short of the forecast, amounting to -10.640 billion, against the expected -10.500 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.4630, 1.4700.




Yen

General overview

The price resumed its decline amid the Chinese economic prospects continue pressuring the stock markets, the yen acts as a refuge currency in this case. The USA published the labor market conditions index: 2,9 against the forecasted 0,0.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 117.00 and 116.20.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The greenback received some support from the USA strong Friday's report where the employment rate rose much more than expected. In addition, the December labor market conditions index has improved to 2.9 vs. expected value of 0.0. The Conference Board employment trends index rose to 129.3 from the previous 128.3. This labor market picture could prompt the Fed to raise the rates earlier if the country inflation accelerates.

The China was again in the center of attention when its stock market fell more than 4%. As a result the euro was in demand as a funding currency. On the other hand, the “black gold” sales caused the German government bonds yield decline, causing the United States bond yield differential expansion. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease.

The UK industrial production report could not please the market with positive data: -0.7% m/m 0.9% y/y. The November production sector PMI lost 2.7 bp. The pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

One could see a moderate USD/JPY growth due to Japanese negative payments balance: the balance figures fell to 1.42 trillion yen from 1.49 trillion yen. There was a capital inflows decrease into Japanese securities and imports growth to a trade balance. The BoJ has lost 11.2 billion dollars in the second month of the fourth quarter which is also a negative factor for its economy. The consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 in December. The pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The improved European investors’ sentiment, the widespread dollar strengthening, as well as unfavorable economic reports helped the euro to weaken. The January Sentix investor confidence index surfaced a drop from 9.6 to 15.7 against the expected value of 12.2. In general, the euro position remains fragile in light of the ECB and the Fed policies divergence, as well the US and the Eurozone different statistics.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the support levels of 1.0800 and 1.0730.



Pound

General overview

The "black gold" quotations collapsed at the beginning of the week which is a positive factor for the US currency as the commodities price is denominated in dollars. The Brent bears are inclined to test the psychological level of 30. This is a negative factor for the Sterling. The 10-year UK government bonds yield reduced relative to their US and the Eurozone counterparts.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.4480. After breaking 1.4480 the buyers may go to 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

. Investors still avoid the "risky assets". This factor is a positive one for the yen as a funding currency. The Japanese Government expressed its strong concerns about the Chinese economy slowdown and about the external risk factors, noting that the country economy keeps growing, despite the China problems.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The flat trading will be continued at the level of 117.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The stock indexes are still the main drivers to the Forex currencies and we believe they will keep influencing the market till the end of the week, especially when the economic calendar is not full with important events.

The Eurostat published the Eurozone industrial production report. Leading indicators are showing mixed background. On the one hand, the Manufacturing PMI positive dynamics makes us think that the data output will be bit better than the forecast. On the other hand, the November Germany and France industrial production recorded a decrease which is a negative scenario signal. The data came in at the level of -0,7%(m/m) and 1,1% (y/y) against the forecasted -0,3% (m/m) and 1,3% (y/y). By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

The British corporations suffer from weak external demand and a sterling high exchange rate against the euro. We do not expect strong data taking into account the factory orders reduction and the December Manufacturing PMI decline. We note a fourth quarter manufacturing sector negative trend. Investors are beginning to lay in the quotes most pessimistic expectations about the fourth quarter UK GDP. The pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat.

The carry trade deals closure has traditionally been a positive factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency Forex. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The secondary USA releases had a minor influence on the quotations dynamics. The economic optimism index showed a growth, but fell short of the expected value, having amounted 47.3 vs. expected – 47.6. Meanwhile, the business confidence indicator came in at the level of 95.2 against the expectations at 95.4. The traders' attention was drawn to the Eurozone industrial production report which is expected to decline in monthly terms. The data came in worse then forecasted median.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.



Pound

General overview

. The weak productive sector suggests that the Bank of England will not raise the rates this year. Shall the Bank of England publish the negative comments on its Thursday meeting, the pound may fall under a new wave of sales.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.4400 and 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened a bit amid the quite favorable macroeconomic statistics. In December, the consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 against the expected 42.3. Meanwhile, the Eco Watchers Survey rose to 48.7 from 46.1. However, the yen failed to hold its positions in a fading of interest in risk-free assets against the background of the stock market recovery. Only by the end of the trades the yen returned the leadership.

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the consolidating between the levels of 118.40 and 117.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman